China Mengniu Dairy Company Ltd CIADY

Consumer StaplesFood & TobaccoHong Kong

Last close 25.20 USD on Nov 1, 2026, +35.3% year to date

Quant rating

Quant rating B Rank 57 of 174 in Consumer Staples

Growth B 51 of 174
Valuation C 79 of 174
Quality D 137 of 174
Revisions B 56 of 174
Momentum B 36 of 174

Wall Street consensus Buy (1.61)Average target 3.03 USD −88.0%

Historical valuation

Multiples use consensus estimates for the next twelve months. The dashed line is the 5-year average.

Key data

Market cap: 9.8B
Enterprise value: 11.5B
52-week range: 17.81 – 25.29
3-year range: 15.14 – 34.34
Dividend yield: 3.02%
Beta (5 years): −0.21
Shares outstanding: 3,871M
Next earnings: Mar 23, 2027

About the company

China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd is an investment holding company principally engaged in the manufacture and distribution of dairy products. The Company operates its business through five segments. The Liquid Milk Business segment mainly engaged in the manufacture and distribution of ultra-high temperature milk, milk beverages, yogurt and fresh milk. The Ice Cream Business segment mainly engaged in the manufacture and distribution of dairy-based ice cream. The Cheese Business segment mainly engaged in the manufacture and distribution of cheese. The Milk Formula Business segment mainly engaged in the manufacture and distribution of milk powder. The Others segment principally engaged in the manufacture of raw materials for dairy products and trading business.

Growth and profitability fiscal year ends December 31

Growth and profitability by fiscal year
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	5Y avg
Revenue (mil)	11,761	12,148	13,895	13,425	13,876	–
Revenue growth	−3.2%	−12.6%	3.5%	−3.3%	19.1%	0.2%
EPS (basic, normalized)	0.08	0.17	0.17	0.19	0.20	–
EPS growth	−51.5%	−0.7%	−13.2%	−2.8%	–	–
Gross margin	39.9%	39.6%	37.2%	35.3%	36.7%	37.7%
Net margin	1.9%	0.1%	4.9%	5.7%	5.7%	3.7%
ROE	3.8%	0.2%	11.4%	13.8%	14.4%	8.7%

Balance sheet, last quarter
Cash & short-term investments (mil)	–
Current ratio	–
Long-term debt (mil)	–
Net debt (mil)	–
Total equity (mil)	–
Net debt / equity	–
Net debt / EBITDA	–

Estimates and valuation

Consensus estimates and implied multiples
	Sales (mil)			EBITDA (mil)			EPS
Fiscal year	Mean est.	Growth	EV/Sales	Mean est.	Growth	EV/EBITDA	Mean est.	Growth	P/E
2025 actual	11,761	−3.2%	1.0x	–	–	–	0.08	−51.5%	310.5x
2026	13,284	+12.9%	0.9x	1,475	–	7.8x	0.19	+130.2%	134.9x
2027	14,001	+5.4%	0.8x	1,581	+7.2%	7.3x	0.22	+16.0%	116.3x
2028	14,711	+5.1%	0.8x	1,688	+6.8%	6.8x	0.24	+11.1%	104.7x

Estimate revisions

Change in consensus estimates over 1, 3 and 6 months
	Sales				EPS
Fiscal year	Estimate (mil)	1M	3M	6M	Estimate	1M	3M	6M
2026	13,284	+0.3%	+2.4%	+3.2%	0.19	0.0%	−3.9%	−2.3%
2027	14,001	+0.4%	+3.5%	+4.5%	0.22	+0.2%	+0.9%	+2.8%
2028	14,711	+0.1%	+3.8%	+4.7%	0.24	−0.9%	+1.6%	+4.2%

Earnings surprises

Reported results versus consensus, last 10 fiscal quarters
	FQ-9	FQ-8	FQ-7	FQ-6	FQ-5	FQ-4	FQ-3	FQ-2	FQ-1	FQ0
Sales reported (mil)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Sales mean (mil)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Surprise	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
EPS reported	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
EPS mean	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Surprise	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

FQ0 is the most recent reported quarter, FQ-1 the one before, and so on.

Peer comparison Food & Tobacco

Peers in the same industry group, by market capitalization
Company	Market cap	Net debt/EBITDA	Net margin	P/B	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E	FY1 EV/EBITDA	FY2 EV/EBITDA
CIADY China Mengniu Dairy Company Ltd	9.8B	–	1.9%	1.61x	134.9x	116.3x	7.8x	7.3x
KIKOY Kikkoman Corp	11.1B	−0.49x	8.3%	2.91x	45.9x	42.7x	14.3x	13.4x
ORKLY Orkla ASA	10.4B	–	–	–	15.2x	14.9x	9.8x	9.5x
WHGLY WH Group Limited	10.4B	–	5.6%	0.93x	152.7x	148.2x	4.5x	4.3x
TYCMY Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corp.	9.1B	–	5.7%	4.69x	272.0x	260.7x	5.9x	5.8x
DAR Darling Ingredients Inc.	8.8B	3.75x	1.0%	1.68x	8.3x	9.0x	5.7x	5.9x
Mean		1.63x	4.5%	2.36x	104.8x	98.6x	8.0x	7.7x
Median		1.63x	5.6%	1.68x	90.4x	79.5x	6.9x	6.6x

Technical analysis

1M+9.8%
3M+5.8%
1Y+41.1%
3Y−13.6%

Financial statements in millions of USD

Income statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Income statement, China Mengniu Dairy Company Ltd, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Total revenue	11,761	12,148	13,895	13,425	13,876	11,653
Cost of revenue	7,069	7,341	8,733	8,685	8,777	7,265
Gross profit	4,692	4,807	5,162	4,740	5,099	4,388
Selling, general & administrative expenses	3,954	3,794	4,261	3,926	4,285	3,805
Research & development	–	–	–	–	–	–
Interest expense (income), operating	29.9	−1.3	22.5	−105	−93.9	−64.2
Unusual expense (income)	62.1	616	−6.3	63.2	126	−5.5
Other operating expenses	96.3	135	23.5	9.4	11.9	159
Operating income	549	264	861	846	770	493
Net interest income (expense)	−133	−127	27.9	97.0	154	144
Gain (loss) on sale of assets	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other non-operating income (expense)	0	0	0	0	0	0
Net income before taxes	416	137	889	943	924	637
Provision for taxes	184	106	201	191	142	100
Minority interest	−11.2	−16.5	−11.0	17.1	9.7	3.6
Equity in affiliates	–	–	–	–	–	–
U.S. GAAP adjustment	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income before extraordinary items	221	14.3	678	769	791	540
Extraordinary items	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income	221	14.3	678	769	791	540
EBIT, normalized	641	878	878	804	802	423
EBITDA, normalized	1,117	1,345	1,342	1,221	1,179	750
Basic EPS, normalized	0.08	0.17	0.17	0.19	0.20	–

Balance sheet in millions of USD, fiscal years

Balance sheet, China Mengniu Dairy Company Ltd, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Assets
Cash & short-term investments	3,538	3,490	2,955	2,841	2,501	2,935
Receivables	601	573	713	1,031	1,007	667
Total inventory	686	676	858	1,171	1,021	845
Prepaid expenses	88.7	127	222	162	314	339
Other current assets	57.2	33.3	60.3	128	40.7	43.4
Total current assets	4,972	4,900	4,808	5,332	4,883	4,829
Property, plant & equipment	3,276	3,530	3,775	3,849	3,479	2,624
Goodwill	1,096	1,052	1,261	1,289	765	748
Intangibles	1,261	1,210	1,778	1,794	1,259	1,183
Long-term investments	2,942	3,550	4,313	4,451	4,737	2,587
Note receivable	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other long-term assets	264	320	297	367	320	312
Total assets	13,811	14,562	16,233	17,081	15,444	12,283
Liabilities
Accounts payable	1,133	1,185	1,338	1,479	1,386	1,221
Payable/accrued	–	–	–	–	–	–
Accrued expenses	676	533	652	653	236	292
Short-term debt	987	1,175	639	616	467	731
Current portion of long-term debt	997	1,108	743	702	205	24.1
Other current liabilities	1,159	1,070	1,220	1,356	2,283	1,738
Total current liabilities	4,952	5,070	4,592	4,807	4,577	4,007
Long-term debt	1,647	2,463	3,889	4,352	3,584	2,149
Minority interest	953	885	892	1,443	814	654
Other liabilities	465	450	616	666	671	419
Total liabilities	8,016	8,868	9,989	11,268	9,647	7,228
Shareholders' equity
Preferred stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Common stock	50.5	48.9	50.5	52.2	56.6	55.1
Additional paid-in capital	927	965	1,017	1,350	1,320	1,408
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)	5,401	5,242	5,640	5,049	4,550	3,665
Treasury stock	−11.8	−18.1	−20.9	−25.5	−4.6	−8.7
Other equity	−573	−544	−442	−612	−125	−65.0
Total equity	5,794	5,694	6,244	5,814	5,797	5,055
Total liabilities & shareholders' equity	13,811	14,562	16,233	17,081	15,444	12,283

Cash flow statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Cash flow statement, China Mengniu Dairy Company Ltd, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Operating activities
Net income	416	137	889	943	924	637
Depreciation, depletion & amortization	475	466	465	417	377	327
Deferred taxes	–	–	–	–	–	–
Non-cash items	563	950	142	−0.5	−74.1	−88.1
Changes in working capital	−202	−412	−320	−160	−38.6	−56.0
Cash from operations	1,251	1,142	1,176	1,200	1,188	820
Investing activities
Capital expenditures	−351	−476	−583	−734	−979	−677
Other investing cash flows	828	−3.4	542	−1,421	−1,451	1,415
Cash from investing	477	−480	−40.3	−2,155	−2,431	739
Financing activities
Financing cash flow items	−49.3	−85.3	−354	−236	6.2	−0.8
Cash dividends paid	−285	−264	−224	−218	−169	−108
Issuance (retirement) of debt, net	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other financing cash flows	−1,341	−518	−381	1,056	1,229	−591
Cash from financing	−1,675	−867	−958	601	1,066	−700
Foreign exchange effects	−76.5	67.2	34.8	6.2	−1.7	−26.3
Net change in cash	−23.4	−137	213	−348	−178	832
Free cash flow	901	665	594	465	208	143

Disclaimer

The financial data presented in this report is delayed and obtained from sources QDD Research believes to be reliable, including stock exchanges, SEDAR, and EDGAR. However, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information. QDD Research accepts no liability for any errors, omissions, or financial losses arising from the use of this data.

This report is generated using a fully systematic and quantitative approach. All factor scores and the overall quant rating (ranging from D to A+) are derived from algorithmic models and are based solely on objective financial metrics. These scores are intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.

QDD Research is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not provide personalized financial advice. The content is not tailored to the specific investment goals, financial situation, or risk profile of any individual investor. We strongly encourage readers to consult with a licensed broker or investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on the information contained in this report.

Live quote provided by TradingView. Report data updated Nov 1, 2026 after market close.