Ecopetrol SA EC

EnergyOil & GasColombia

Last close 17.68 USD on Nov 1, 2026, +79.6% year to date

Quant rating

Quant rating B Rank 23 of 113 in Energy

Growth C 48 of 113
Valuation A 14 of 113
Quality C 51 of 113
Revisions C 46 of 113
Momentum B 33 of 113

Wall Street consensus Hold (3.20)Average target 15.64 USD −11.5%

Historical valuation

Multiples use consensus estimates for the next twelve months. The dashed line is the 5-year average.

Key data

Market cap: 36.1B
Enterprise value: 74.1B
52-week range: 9.10 – 18.37
3-year range: 7.36 – 18.37
Dividend yield: 3.78%
Beta (5 years): 0.55
Shares outstanding: 41,117M
Next earnings: Nov 10, 2026

About the company

Ecopetrol S.A. is an oil company. The Company operates in Colombia, Peru, Brazil and the United States Gulf Coast. The Company's segments include Exploration and Production, Transportation and Logistics, and Refining, Petrochemicals and Biofuels. The Company's Exploration and Production segment includes exploration, development and production activities in Colombia and abroad. The Company's Transportation and Logistics segment includes the transportation of crude oil, motor fuels, fuel oil and other refined products, including diesel and biofuels. The Company's main crude oil pipeline systems' operating capacity is approximately 1.34 million barrels per day (BPD). The Company's main refineries are the Barrancabermeja refinery, which it directly owns and operates, and a refinery in the Free Trade Zone in Cartagena that is operated by Reficar S.A., a subsidiary of the Company. The Company also owns and operates two other minor refineries: Orito and Apiay.

Growth and profitability fiscal year ends December 31

Growth and profitability by fiscal year
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	5Y avg
Revenue (mil)	31,783	30,288	36,947	32,902	22,567	–
Revenue growth	4.9%	−18.0%	12.3%	45.8%	54.0%	16.8%
EPS (basic, normalized)	1.08	1.78	2.15	3.82	2.17	–
EPS growth	−39.3%	−16.9%	−43.8%	76.1%	–	–
Gross margin	31.4%	35.1%	38.4%	43.9%	39.4%	37.7%
Net margin	7.5%	11.2%	13.3%	20.9%	18.2%	14.2%
ROE	10.8%	18.4%	22.5%	41.0%	27.0%	23.9%

Balance sheet, last quarter
Cash & short-term investments (mil)	3,415
Current ratio	1.51x
Long-term debt (mil)	27,575
Net debt (mil)	34,656
Total equity (mil)	24,955
Net debt / equity	1.39x
Net debt / EBITDA	3.01x

Estimates and valuation

Consensus estimates and implied multiples
	Sales (mil)			EBITDA (mil)			EPS
Fiscal year	Mean est.	Growth	EV/Sales	Mean est.	Growth	EV/EBITDA	Mean est.	Growth	P/E
2025 actual	31,783	+4.9%	2.3x	11,525	−15.2%	6.4x	1.08	−39.3%	16.3x
2026	39,984	+25.8%	1.9x	17,200	+49.2%	4.3x	2.11	+94.3%	8.4x
2027	37,577	−6.0%	2.0x	15,082	−12.3%	4.9x	1.80	−14.6%	9.8x
2028	36,997	−1.5%	2.0x	14,490	−3.9%	5.1x	1.59	−11.6%	11.1x

Estimate revisions

Change in consensus estimates over 1, 3 and 6 months
	Sales				EPS
Fiscal year	Estimate (mil)	1M	3M	6M	Estimate	1M	3M	6M
2026	39,984	+6.5%	+10.4%	+16.7%	2.11	+18.2%	+8.9%	+22.7%
2027	37,577	+2.6%	+6.6%	+13.4%	1.80	+10.6%	−0.4%	+14.8%
2028	36,997	−0.3%	+6.4%	+12.6%	1.59	+1.5%	−6.2%	−4.8%

Earnings surprises EPS beat in 1 of the last 4 quarters

Reported results versus consensus, last 10 fiscal quarters
Quarter ended	Mar 2024	Jun 2024	Sep 2024	Dec 2024	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Sales reported (mil)	7,999	8,316	8,452	8,001	7,495	7,075	7,454	7,556	7,760	8,676
Sales mean (mil)	8,497	8,530	7,908	8,057	7,867	7,426	7,151	6,924	7,621	10,380
Surprise	−5.9%	−2.5%	+6.9%	−0.7%	−4.7%	−4.7%	+4.2%	+9.1%	+1.8%	−16.4%
EPS reported	0.50	0.42	0.43	0.44	0.36	0.21	0.31	0.20	0.38	0.82
EPS mean	0.54	0.52	0.42	0.31	0.35	0.33	0.32	0.30	0.45	0.78
Surprise	−8.1%	−19.1%	+2.3%	+42.6%	+4.1%	−35.9%	−2.8%	−33.9%	−15.7%	+5.1%

Peer comparison Oil & Gas

Peers in the same industry group, by market capitalization
Company	Market cap	Net debt/EBITDA	Net margin	P/B	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E	FY1 EV/EBITDA	FY2 EV/EBITDA
EC Ecopetrol SA	36.1B	3.01x	7.5%	1.34x	8.4x	9.8x	4.3x	4.9x
CVX Chevron Corporation	465.3B	0.85x	6.7%	2.45x	13.3x	14.9x	6.9x	7.5x
SHEL Shell plc	308.3B	0.73x	6.7%	1.67x	8.5x	10.6x	4.2x	4.7x
PBR Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras	136.4B	1.43x	22.1%	1.61x	5.5x	6.1x	3.0x	3.2x
BP BP PLC	131.8B	1.17x	0.4%	2.26x	6.4x	8.8x	3.4x	4.0x
EQNR Equinor ASA	115.9B	0.15x	4.8%	2.57x	8.1x	10.1x	2.1x	2.4x
Mean		1.22x	8.0%	1.98x	8.4x	10.1x	4.0x	4.4x
Median		1.01x	6.7%	1.97x	8.3x	10.0x	3.8x	4.3x

Technical analysis

1M+2.9%
3M+8.6%
1Y+95.2%
3Y+110.0%

Financial statements in millions of USD

Income statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Income statement, Ecopetrol SA, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Total revenue	31,783	30,288	36,947	32,902	22,567	14,651
Cost of revenue	21,789	19,646	22,770	18,456	13,672	10,998
Gross profit	9,994	10,642	14,177	14,445	8,895	3,653
Selling, general & administrative expenses	2,340	1,915	2,074	1,413	1,224	1,448
Research & development	253	402	539	312	236	202
Depreciation/amortization	155	125	157	148	138	95.0
Interest expense (income), operating	–	–	–	–	–	–
Unusual expense (income)	118	−496	535	98.4	59.1	−132
Other operating expenses	44.9	−40.9	117	75.7	−33.1	−13.4
Operating income	7,084	8,737	10,755	12,398	7,271	2,054
Net interest income (expense)	−1,316	−1,103	−388	−766	−481	−256
Gain (loss) on sale of assets	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other non-operating income (expense)	−760	−659	−867	−486	−324	−444
Net income before taxes	5,008	6,975	9,500	11,146	6,466	1,353
Provision for taxes	1,574	2,519	3,482	3,505	1,860	520
Minority interest	−1,037	−1,063	−1,096	−749	−500	−338
Equity in affiliates	–	–	–	–	–	–
U.S. GAAP adjustment	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income before extraordinary items	2,398	3,393	4,922	6,892	4,107	494
Extraordinary items	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income	2,398	3,393	4,922	6,892	4,107	494
EBIT, normalized	7,202	8,241	11,290	12,496	7,330	1,921
EBITDA, normalized	11,480	11,693	14,857	14,999	9,830	4,648
Basic EPS, normalized	1.08	1.78	2.15	3.82	2.17	–

Balance sheet in millions of USD, fiscal years

Balance sheet, Ecopetrol SA, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Assets
Cash & short-term investments	3,466	3,521	3,807	3,522	4,109	2,195
Receivables	8,059	7,499	10,915	9,672	6,239	2,734
Total inventory	2,286	2,278	2,635	2,451	2,066	1,480
Prepaid expenses	379	458	347	283	281	256
Other current assets	1.6	20.0	15.1	14.7	21.7	22.0
Total current assets	14,192	13,776	17,718	15,943	12,716	6,687
Property, plant & equipment	41,293	35,462	36,469	29,699	31,122	28,941
Goodwill	1,219	1,114	1,189	1,054	1,062	396
Intangibles	3,728	3,729	3,800	3,744	3,680	163
Long-term investments	2,524	2,962	2,270	2,282	2,377	1,187
Note receivable	9,328	7,300	7,690	6,634	5,943	198
Other long-term assets	3,165	4,113	3,756	3,852	3,180	3,258
Total assets	75,450	68,457	72,892	63,208	60,080	40,831
Liabilities
Accounts payable	3,077	3,424	3,539	3,102	2,575	1,901
Payable/accrued	–	–	–	–	–	–
Accrued expenses	924	765	790	568	565	592
Short-term debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Current portion of long-term debt	2,677	2,564	4,015	4,580	2,265	1,442
Other current liabilities	2,487	2,251	2,905	3,465	2,036	1,419
Total current liabilities	9,165	9,004	11,249	11,715	7,441	5,354
Long-term debt	26,320	24,688	23,309	19,174	21,118	12,244
Minority interest	6,768	5,970	6,380	5,788	5,416	1,091
Other liabilities	10,955	9,781	11,711	7,750	8,460	6,884
Total liabilities	53,208	49,443	52,649	44,426	42,435	25,574
Shareholders' equity
Preferred stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Common stock	6,649	5,688	6,466	5,166	6,159	7,333
Additional paid-in capital	1,755	1,501	1,706	1,363	1,625	1,935
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)	10,822	9,206	9,947	9,045	7,087	3,686
Treasury stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other equity	3,016	2,618	2,124	3,208	2,773	2,302
Total equity	22,242	19,014	20,243	18,782	17,645	15,257
Total liabilities & shareholders' equity	75,450	68,457	72,892	63,208	60,080	40,831

Cash flow statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Cash flow statement, Ecopetrol SA, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Operating activities
Net income	3,434	4,456	6,018	7,641	4,606	832
Depreciation, depletion & amortization	4,277	3,452	3,567	2,502	2,499	2,727
Deferred taxes	–	–	–	–	–	–
Non-cash items	3,929	4,060	6,240	5,636	2,959	1,424
Changes in working capital	−2,787	−1,717	−10,712	−8,303	−4,521	−2,293
Cash from operations	8,854	10,252	5,113	7,476	5,543	2,690
Investing activities
Capital expenditures	−5,530	−4,754	−6,221	−4,514	−3,270	−3,256
Other investing cash flows	774	−251	1,051	780	−1,777	758
Cash from investing	−4,756	−5,005	−5,170	−3,733	−5,047	−2,498
Financing activities
Financing cash flow items	−2,182	−1,717	−1,711	−1,151	−820	−687
Cash dividends paid	−3,111	−3,536	−1,439	−2,756	−682	−2,558
Issuance (retirement) of debt, net	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other financing cash flows	682	98.8	3,058	0	3,213	2,475
Cash from financing	−4,611	−5,154	−91.6	−3,906	1,712	−770
Foreign exchange effects	−378	298	−643	340	121	−6.5
Net change in cash	−892	390	−791	176	2,329	−584
Free cash flow	3,323	5,498	−1,108	2,962	2,273	−565

Disclaimer

The financial data presented in this report is delayed and obtained from sources QDD Research believes to be reliable, including stock exchanges, SEDAR, and EDGAR. However, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information. QDD Research accepts no liability for any errors, omissions, or financial losses arising from the use of this data.

This report is generated using a fully systematic and quantitative approach. All factor scores and the overall quant rating (ranging from D to A+) are derived from algorithmic models and are based solely on objective financial metrics. These scores are intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.

QDD Research is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not provide personalized financial advice. The content is not tailored to the specific investment goals, financial situation, or risk profile of any individual investor. We strongly encourage readers to consult with a licensed broker or investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on the information contained in this report.

Live quote provided by TradingView. Report data updated Nov 1, 2026 after market close.