GFL Environmental Inc. GFL

IndustrialsProfessional & Commercial ServicesCanada

Last close 45.98 USD on Nov 2, 2026, +7.2% year to date

Quant rating

Quant rating C Rank 173 of 418 in Industrials

Growth B 144 of 418
Valuation D 306 of 418
Quality C 290 of 418
Revisions B 150 of 418
Momentum B 64 of 418

Wall Street consensus Buy (2.06)Average target 52.41 USD +14.0%

Historical valuation

Multiples use consensus estimates for the next twelve months. The dashed line is the 5-year average.

Key data

Market cap: 19.5B
Enterprise value: 28.3B
52-week range: 33.34 – 46.76
3-year range: 27.45 – 51.58
Dividend yield: 0.15%
Beta (5 years): 0.67
Shares outstanding: 424M
Next earnings: Feb 9, 2027

About the company

GFL Environmental Inc. is a diversified environmental services company in North America. The Company is engaged in providing comprehensive solid waste management services from its platform of facilities throughout Canada and 19 United States. The Company’s lines of business are the transporting, managing, recycling, processing and disposal of solid and industrial waste. Its operating segments are based on geography between Canada and the United States, each of which includes activities related to hauling, landfill, transfer and material recycling facilities.

Growth and profitability fiscal year ends December 31

Growth and profitability by fiscal year
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	5Y avg
Revenue (mil)	4,821	4,269	5,674	4,990	4,374	–
Revenue growth	12.9%	−24.8%	13.7%	14.1%	32.7%	7.9%
EPS (basic, normalized)	0.55	0.59	0.72	0.36	0.34	–
EPS growth	−6.2%	−17.9%	98.2%	6.7%	–	–
Gross margin	20.7%	18.4%	16.9%	11.8%	9.5%	15.5%
Net margin	3.2%	−15.7%	−0.6%	−2.7%	−11.0%	−5.4%
ROE	3.7%	−12.5%	0.7%	−3.1%	−10.6%	−4.4%

Balance sheet, last quarter
Cash & short-term investments (mil)	208
Current ratio	0.93x
Long-term debt (mil)	8,619
Net debt (mil)	8,614
Total equity (mil)	8,240
Net debt / equity	1.05x
Net debt / EBITDA	5.89x

Estimates and valuation

Consensus estimates and implied multiples
	Sales (mil)			EBITDA (mil)			EPS
Fiscal year	Mean est.	Growth	EV/Sales	Mean est.	Growth	EV/EBITDA	Mean est.	Growth	P/E
2025 actual	4,821	+12.9%	5.9x	1,462	−5.8%	19.3x	0.55	−6.2%	83.2x
2026	5,677	+17.8%	5.0x	1,764	+20.6%	16.0x	0.57	+2.6%	81.1x
2027	6,878	+21.2%	4.1x	2,184	+23.8%	12.9x	0.92	+62.6%	49.9x
2028	7,301	+6.1%	3.9x	2,359	+8.0%	12.0x	1.21	+31.5%	37.9x

Estimate revisions

Change in consensus estimates over 1, 3 and 6 months
	Sales				EPS
Fiscal year	Estimate (mil)	1M	3M	6M	Estimate	1M	3M	6M
2026	5,677	+2.9%	+6.3%	+8.0%	0.57	−6.3%	−5.0%	−15.2%
2027	6,878	+9.4%	+19.1%	+21.0%	0.92	−3.6%	+3.9%	−1.5%
2028	7,301	+5.2%	+18.8%	+20.8%	1.21	+0.9%	+8.8%	+2.1%

Earnings surprises EPS beat in 1 of the last 4 quarters

Reported results versus consensus, last 10 fiscal quarters
Quarter ended	Mar 2024	Jun 2024	Sep 2024	Dec 2024	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Sales reported (mil)	1,801	2,060	2,015	1,986	1,560	1,675	1,694	1,686	1,644	1,948
Sales mean (mil)	1,787	2,059	2,052	1,981	1,552	1,674	1,689	1,665	1,627	1,887
Surprise	+0.8%	+0.1%	−1.8%	+0.2%	+0.5%	+0.1%	+0.3%	+1.3%	+1.1%	+3.2%
EPS reported	0.00	0.29	0.33	0.22	−0.09	0.26	0.23	0.36	0.08	0.19
EPS mean	−0.05	0.30	0.35	0.21	0.04	0.24	0.26	0.20	0.11	0.26
Surprise	−104.4%	−3.8%	−5.9%	+6.4%	−300.0%	+10.4%	−12.4%	+82.3%	−26.7%	−27.1%

Peer comparison Professional & Commercial Services

Peers in the same industry group, by market capitalization
Company	Market cap	Net debt/EBITDA	Net margin	P/B	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E	FY1 EV/EBITDA	FY2 EV/EBITDA
GFL GFL Environmental Inc.	19.5B	5.89x	3.2%	2.53x	81.1x	49.9x	16.0x	12.9x
WM Waste Management Inc	94.5B	3.05x	10.7%	9.58x	29.3x	26.6x	14.4x	13.5x
RSG Republic Services Inc	74.9B	2.63x	12.9%	6.13x	33.8x	30.7x	16.0x	15.0x
URI United Rentals, Inc.	72.8B	1.98x	15.5%	7.52x	22.6x	19.1x	10.5x	9.4x
WCN Waste Connections, Inc.	47.1B	2.99x	11.4%	5.98x	33.0x	30.5x	16.9x	15.7x
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc	34.3B	1.82x	11.9%	4.61x	19.7x	17.1x	8.5x	7.8x
Mean		3.06x	10.9%	6.06x	36.6x	29.0x	13.7x	12.4x
Median		2.81x	11.6%	6.05x	31.2x	28.5x	15.2x	13.2x

Technical analysis

1M+9.6%
3M+11.3%
1Y+5.4%
3Y+63.3%

Financial statements in millions of USD

Income statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Income statement, GFL Environmental Inc., fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Total revenue	4,821	4,269	5,674	4,990	4,374	3,296
Cost of revenue	3,824	3,484	4,716	4,402	3,956	3,147
Gross profit	996	785	958	589	418	149
Selling, general & administrative expenses	676	580	713	518	445	379
Research & development	–	–	–	–	–	–
Depreciation/amortization	28.4	20.9	22.3	21.5	23.7	20.0
Interest expense (income), operating	–	–	–	–	–	–
Unusual expense (income)	28.5	347	−432	1.7	−121	121
Other operating expenses	0	0	0	0	0	0
Operating income	263	−163	655	47.9	70.4	−371
Net interest income (expense)	−242	−598	−486	−274	−564	−588
Gain (loss) on sale of assets	66.4	1.9	9.9	−3.5	−1.5	−3.6
Other non-operating income (expense)	77.9	−22.7	−33.2	−35.7	−69.3	−102
Net income before taxes	165	−782	145	−265	−564	−1,065
Provision for taxes	−10.3	−157	121	−130	−83.9	−199
Minority interest	15.1	10.4	10.0	−0.5	–	–
Equity in affiliates	–	–	–	–	–	–
U.S. GAAP adjustment	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income before extraordinary items	191	−614	34.3	−136	−480	−866
Extraordinary items	2,603	111	0	−94.4	–	–
Net income	2,794	−503	34.3	−230	−480	−866
EBIT, normalized	342	200	294	109	19.8	−158
EBITDA, normalized	1,310	1,297	1,420	1,235	1,079	815
Basic EPS, normalized	0.55	0.59	0.72	0.36	0.34	–

Balance sheet in millions of USD, fiscal years

Balance sheet, GFL Environmental Inc., fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Assets
Cash & short-term investments	62.4	93.0	102	60.6	151	21.4
Receivables	654	877	851	825	898	681
Total inventory	–	–	–	62.1	64.9	45.1
Prepaid expenses	132	209	167	72.8	70.1	59.9
Other current assets	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total current assets	848	1,179	1,121	1,021	1,184	808
Property, plant & equipment	5,337	5,460	5,270	4,827	4,757	3,986
Goodwill	5,024	5,609	5,957	6,039	5,937	5,106
Intangibles	1,280	1,970	2,308	2,395	2,636	2,430
Long-term investments	1,383	239	241	241	–	–
Note receivable	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other long-term assets	187	290	112	66.6	28.7	26.1
Total assets	14,059	14,748	15,009	14,590	14,543	12,357
Liabilities
Accounts payable	620	565	537	–	–	–
Payable/accrued	–	–	–	1,150	1,045	797
Accrued expenses	539	582	574	–	–	–
Short-term debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Current portion of long-term debt	43.6	846	52.3	51.2	53.9	33.1
Other current liabilities	253	199	204	786	107	107
Total current liabilities	1,456	2,191	1,367	1,987	1,205	937
Long-term debt	5,737	6,488	6,954	7,068	6,506	4,961
Minority interest	133	169	158	5.1	–	–
Other liabilities	1,413	1,046	1,111	1,074	2,261	1,997
Total liabilities	8,738	9,895	9,590	10,134	9,971	7,895
Shareholders' equity
Preferred stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Common stock	5,107	6,911	7,426	6,377	6,699	6,005
Additional paid-in capital	150	105	113	80.9	61.3	42.7
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)	167	−2,485	−2,131	−2,098	−1,987	−1,397
Treasury stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other equity	−103	322	11.4	96.2	−201	−190
Total equity	5,321	4,853	5,419	4,456	4,572	4,461
Total liabilities & shareholders' equity	14,059	14,748	15,009	14,590	14,543	12,357

Cash flow statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Cash flow statement, GFL Environmental Inc., fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Operating activities
Net income	2,779	−513	24.3	−230	−480	−782
Depreciation, depletion & amortization	959	1,085	1,121	1,120	1,059	972
Deferred taxes	568	−162	−149	−130	−103	−285
Non-cash items	−2,919	1,070	446	456	539	498
Changes in working capital	−427	−410	−702	−408	−305	−9.6
Cash from operations	959	1,071	740	809	711	395
Investing activities
Capital expenditures	−832	−830	−797	−576	−512	−336
Other investing cash flows	3,716	−342	562	−704	−1,615	−3,083
Cash from investing	2,884	−1,171	−234	−1,280	−2,127	−3,420
Financing activities
Financing cash flow items	−10.7	−23.1	−33.2	−15.6	−42.9	734
Cash dividends paid	−22.7	−19.6	−18.9	−15.3	−14.2	−10.3
Issuance (retirement) of debt, net	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other financing cash flows	−3,841	156	−403	451	1,612	1,898
Cash from financing	−3,874	113	−455	420	1,555	2,622
Foreign exchange effects	−4.3	−14.5	−10.3	−29.1	−9.7	−27.2
Net change in cash	−35.1	−1.3	40.5	−79.9	129	−430
Free cash flow	127	241	−56.4	233	198	58.1

Disclaimer

The financial data presented in this report is delayed and obtained from sources QDD Research believes to be reliable, including stock exchanges, SEDAR, and EDGAR. However, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information. QDD Research accepts no liability for any errors, omissions, or financial losses arising from the use of this data.

This report is generated using a fully systematic and quantitative approach. All factor scores and the overall quant rating (ranging from D to A+) are derived from algorithmic models and are based solely on objective financial metrics. These scores are intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.

QDD Research is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not provide personalized financial advice. The content is not tailored to the specific investment goals, financial situation, or risk profile of any individual investor. We strongly encourage readers to consult with a licensed broker or investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on the information contained in this report.

Live quote provided by TradingView. Report data updated Nov 2, 2026 after market close.