Holmen AB HLHLY

MaterialsPaper & Forest ProductsSweden

Last close 16.18 USD on Nov 2, 2026, −17.0% year to date

Quant rating

Quant rating C Rank 107 of 220 in Materials

Growth B 76 of 220
Valuation C 142 of 220
Quality B 46 of 220
Revisions B 85 of 220
Momentum D 181 of 220

Wall Street consensus Buy (2.50)Average target 34.63 USD +114.0%

Historical valuation

Multiples use consensus estimates for the next twelve months. The dashed line is the 5-year average.

Key data

Market cap: 4.7B
Enterprise value: 5.3B
52-week range: 14.74 – 25.00
3-year range: 14.74 – 25.00
Dividend yield: 3.14%
Beta (5 years): –
Shares outstanding: 154M
Next earnings: Feb 2, 2027

About the company

Holmen AB is a Sweden-based company active primarily within the paper products sector. The Company is engaged in the manufacture of printing paper, paperboard and sawn timber and conducting forestry and energy production operations. The Company’s operations are divided into five business areas. The Holmen Paper business area manufactures magazine and book paper, white and colored newsprint, and telephone directory paper at two mills in Sweden and one in Spain. The Iggesund Paperboard business area produces solid bleached board (SBB) and folding boxboard (FBB) for consumer packaging and graphics printing at one mill in Sweden and one in the United Kingdom. The Holmen Timber business area produces pine joinery timber and spruce construction timber at two Swedish sawmills. The Holmen Skog business area is responsible for the Company’s forests and wood supply. The Holmen Energi business area is in charge of the Company’s hydro and wind power operations.

Growth and profitability fiscal year ends December 31

Growth and profitability by fiscal year
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	5Y avg
Revenue (mil)	2,398	2,059	2,264	2,301	2,155	–
Revenue growth	16.5%	−9.1%	−1.6%	6.8%	8.4%	3.8%
EPS (basic, normalized)	1.99	1.62	2.21	3.31	2.18	–
EPS growth	22.4%	−26.7%	−33.2%	52.3%	–	–
Gross margin	45.3%	45.0%	50.7%	55.3%	48.1%	48.9%
Net margin	13.1%	12.6%	16.2%	24.5%	15.4%	16.4%
ROE	5.1%	5.0%	6.5%	11.3%	6.7%	6.9%

Balance sheet, last quarter
Cash & short-term investments (mil)	22.5
Current ratio	1.35x
Long-term debt (mil)	423
Net debt (mil)	612
Total equity (mil)	5,496
Net debt / equity	0.11x
Net debt / EBITDA	1.15x

Estimates and valuation

Consensus estimates and implied multiples
	Sales (mil)			EBITDA (mil)			EPS
Fiscal year	Mean est.	Growth	EV/Sales	Mean est.	Growth	EV/EBITDA	Mean est.	Growth	P/E
2025 actual	2,398	+16.5%	2.2x	531	+12.8%	10.0x	1.99	+22.4%	8.1x
2026	2,169	−9.5%	2.4x	437	−17.7%	12.1x	1.42	−28.5%	11.4x
2027	2,204	+1.6%	2.4x	479	+9.4%	11.1x	1.65	+16.1%	9.8x
2028	2,234	+1.4%	2.4x	501	+4.6%	10.6x	1.78	+8.0%	9.1x

Estimate revisions

Change in consensus estimates over 1, 3 and 6 months
	Sales				EPS
Fiscal year	Estimate (mil)	1M	3M	6M	Estimate	1M	3M	6M
2026	2,169	−2.3%	−2.0%	−2.3%	1.42	−5.7%	−7.2%	−11.6%
2027	2,204	−1.7%	−1.0%	−1.5%	1.65	−2.8%	−1.1%	−2.6%
2028	2,234	−2.1%	−0.8%	−1.6%	1.78	−0.8%	+2.8%	+0.6%

Earnings surprises EPS beat in 2 of the last 4 quarters

Reported results versus consensus, last 10 fiscal quarters
Quarter ended	Mar 2024	Jun 2024	Sep 2024	Dec 2024	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Sales reported (mil)	5,720	5,894	5,632	5,513	5,973	5,573	5,327	5,183	5,473	5,632
Sales mean (mil)	5,647	5,858	5,825	5,712	5,743	6,079	5,653	5,494	5,716	5,380
Surprise	+1.3%	+0.6%	−3.3%	−3.5%	+4.0%	−8.3%	−5.8%	−5.7%	−4.2%	+4.7%
EPS reported	4.70	4.70	5.10	3.50	4.80	3.80	6.10	3.58	4.00	3.30
EPS mean	4.79	5.05	4.85	3.87	4.19	4.49	3.77	3.92	4.52	3.22
Surprise	−1.9%	−6.9%	+5.2%	−9.6%	+14.5%	−15.4%	+61.6%	−8.8%	−11.5%	+2.4%

Peer comparison Paper & Forest Products

Peers in the same industry group, by market capitalization
Company	Market cap	Net debt/EBITDA	Net margin	P/B	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E	FY1 EV/EBITDA	FY2 EV/EBITDA
HLHLY Holmen AB	4.7B	1.15x	13.1%	0.82x	11.4x	9.8x	12.1x	11.1x
LPX Louisiana-Pacific Corporation	5.3B	0.28x	5.4%	3.03x	69.5x	27.0x	19.5x	11.8x
WFG West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.	5.0B	5.98x	−17.2%	0.95x	−15.3x	66.6x	30.6x	10.2x
OJIPY Oji Holdings Corporation	4.8B	–	3.0%	0.64x	–	–	–	–
HLMNY Holmen AB	4.7B	1.15x	13.1%	0.82x	11.9x	10.2x	12.1x	11.1x
UFPI UFP Industries, Inc.	4.6B	−0.87x	4.5%	1.54x	19.2x	17.4x	8.4x	7.8x
Mean		1.54x	3.6%	1.30x	19.3x	26.2x	16.6x	10.4x
Median		1.15x	4.9%	0.88x	11.9x	17.4x	12.1x	11.1x

Technical analysis

1M–
3M0.0%
1Y−17.0%
3Y−17.0%

Financial statements in millions of USD

Income statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Income statement, Holmen AB, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Total revenue	2,398	2,059	2,264	2,301	2,155	1,988
Cost of revenue	1,313	1,132	1,117	1,029	1,118	1,080
Gross profit	1,085	926	1,148	1,272	1,037	908
Selling, general & administrative expenses	374	307	329	284	301	293
Research & development	–	–	–	–	–	–
Depreciation/amortization	159	126	135	129	140	143
Interest expense (income), operating	−0.5	−0.6	−0.6	−1.0	0	0.7
Unusual expense (income)	−98.5	−83.9	−57.3	−43.9	−86.7	−77.7
Other operating expenses	296	242	269	180	270	247
Operating income	355	337	472	723	413	302
Net interest income (expense)	−11.4	−5.6	−4.9	−8.5	−4.3	−5.1
Gain (loss) on sale of assets	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other non-operating income (expense)	0	0.1	−0.1	0.1	−0.1	0
Net income before taxes	344	331	467	715	408	297
Provision for taxes	31.1	72.2	100	151	76.1	55.8
Minority interest	–	–	–	–	–	–
Equity in affiliates	–	–	–	–	–	–
U.S. GAAP adjustment	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income before extraordinary items	313	259	367	564	332	241
Extraordinary items	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income	313	259	367	564	332	241
EBIT, normalized	256	252	414	653	363	225
EBITDA, normalized	416	378	550	782	502	368
Basic EPS, normalized	1.99	1.62	2.21	3.31	2.18	–

Balance sheet in millions of USD, fiscal years

Balance sheet, Holmen AB, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Assets
Cash & short-term investments	102	55.9	204	660	175	109
Receivables	315	300	323	426	323	304
Total inventory	614	515	480	465	422	438
Prepaid expenses	43.4	31.9	34.2	54.1	19.8	32.4
Other current assets	1.5	1.0	4.3	0.8	0.7	2.1
Total current assets	1,076	904	1,046	1,606	941	885
Property, plant & equipment	7,450	6,268	6,648	6,007	6,309	6,417
Goodwill	38.9	32.4	35.6	34.4	39.6	43.2
Intangibles	14.0	12.7	15.4	6.6	20.0	24.3
Long-term investments	185	154	168	162	194	209
Note receivable	3.9	4.2	6.1	9.3	29.6	35.3
Other long-term assets	22.7	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1
Total assets	8,790	7,377	7,919	7,825	7,534	7,613
Liabilities
Accounts payable	410	344	337	370	314	304
Payable/accrued	–	–	–	–	–	–
Accrued expenses	104	90.8	97.9	83.7	98.2	113
Short-term debt	149	0	0	0	22.1	60.9
Current portion of long-term debt	13.0	8.6	9.0	8.6	7.9	13.6
Other current liabilities	106	180	196	257	109	95.8
Total current liabilities	782	624	641	719	551	587
Long-term debt	392	238	205	294	451	496
Minority interest	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other liabilities	1,594	1,325	1,419	1,339	1,333	1,355
Total liabilities	2,767	2,187	2,264	2,353	2,335	2,438
Shareholders' equity
Preferred stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Common stock	461	383	421	407	469	516
Additional paid-in capital	30.5	25.4	27.9	27.0	31.1	34.2
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)	3,438	2,906	3,153	3,050	3,067	3,221
Treasury stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other equity	2,093	1,875	2,053	1,988	1,632	1,405
Total equity	6,023	5,189	5,654	5,472	5,199	5,176
Total liabilities & shareholders' equity	8,790	7,377	7,919	7,825	7,534	7,613

Cash flow statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Cash flow statement, Holmen AB, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Operating activities
Net income	344	331	467	715	408	297
Depreciation, depletion & amortization	159	126	135	129	140	143
Deferred taxes	–	–	–	–	–	–
Non-cash items	−72.6	−81.0	−58.9	−36.4	−101	−76.4
Changes in working capital	−12.0	−75.6	33.1	−281	−89.5	−63.8
Cash from operations	419	300	577	527	357	299
Investing activities
Capital expenditures	−233	−191	−169	−134	−190	−142
Other investing cash flows	2.6	4.4	5.2	4.0	44.9	−75.0
Cash from investing	−230	−187	−164	−130	−145	−217
Financing activities
Financing cash flow items	217	−10.5	0.1	0	−0.2	0.4
Cash dividends paid	−205	−166	−257	−179	−193	−69.0
Issuance (retirement) of debt, net	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other financing cash flows	−183	−24.8	−228	−81.8	−2.3	−29.7
Cash from financing	−171	−201	−486	−261	−195	−98.4
Foreign exchange effects	−0.4	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.2	−0.5
Net change in cash	17.0	−87.6	−72.8	137	17.7	−16.8
Free cash flow	186	109	407	393	168	157

Disclaimer

The financial data presented in this report is delayed and obtained from sources QDD Research believes to be reliable, including stock exchanges, SEDAR, and EDGAR. However, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information. QDD Research accepts no liability for any errors, omissions, or financial losses arising from the use of this data.

This report is generated using a fully systematic and quantitative approach. All factor scores and the overall quant rating (ranging from D to A+) are derived from algorithmic models and are based solely on objective financial metrics. These scores are intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.

QDD Research is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not provide personalized financial advice. The content is not tailored to the specific investment goals, financial situation, or risk profile of any individual investor. We strongly encourage readers to consult with a licensed broker or investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on the information contained in this report.

Live quote provided by TradingView. Report data updated Nov 2, 2026 after market close.