Oatly Group AB OTLY

Consumer StaplesFood & TobaccoSweden

Last close 7.75 USD on Nov 1, 2026, −27.5% year to date

Quant rating

Quant rating D Rank 136 of 174 in Consumer Staples

Growth B 37 of 174
Valuation D 136 of 174
Quality B 59 of 174
Revisions D 133 of 174
Momentum D 160 of 174

Wall Street consensus Buy (2.20)Average target 15.10 USD +94.8%

Historical valuation

Multiples use consensus estimates for the next twelve months. The dashed line is the 5-year average.

Key data

Market cap: 242M
Enterprise value: 771M
52-week range: 7.47 – 16.16
3-year range: 6.84 – 27.40
Dividend yield: –
Beta (5 years): 1.96
Shares outstanding: 624M
Next earnings: Feb 11, 2027

About the company

Oatly Group AB (publ) is a Sweden-based company that is primarily focused on manufacture, distribution and sale oat-based products. The Company's scope of activity concentrates on developing the know-how around oats, and what follows - the alternatives to milk, ice cream, yogurt, cooking creams, spreads and on-the-go drinks. Moreover, the Company distributes their oat-based dairy substitute products primarily under its own brand, Oatly. Apart from oatmilk production, Oatly Group AB (publ) also handles the administration of Oatly Group and its financing. The major operations in the Group take place in underlying companies, primarily in Oatly AB. Oatly Group AB (publ) products are available in over 20 countries.

Growth and profitability

Growth and profitability by fiscal year
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	5Y avg
Revenue (mil)	862	824	783	722	643	–
Revenue growth	4.7%	5.1%	8.5%	12.3%	52.6%	15.4%
EPS (basic, normalized)	−5.03	−5.40	−14.00	−11.80	−6.60	–
EPS growth	–	–	–	–	–	–
Gross margin	33.1%	29.1%	21.6%	15.1%	24.6%	24.7%
Net margin	−17.7%	−24.5%	−53.2%	−54.4%	−33.0%	−36.6%
ROE	−247.9%	−92.1%	−74.1%	−38.6%	−27.0%	−95.9%

Balance sheet, last quarter
Cash & short-term investments (mil)	23.3
Current ratio	0.40x
Long-term debt (mil)	186
Net debt (mil)	529
Total equity (mil)	−50.8
Net debt / equity	−10.41x
Net debt / EBITDA	77.56x

Estimates and valuation

Consensus estimates and implied multiples
	Sales (mil)			EBITDA (mil)			EPS
Fiscal year	Mean est.	Growth	EV/Sales	Mean est.	Growth	EV/EBITDA	Mean est.	Growth	P/E
2025 actual	862	+4.7%	0.9x	6.8	+116.0%	113.0x	−5.03	+6.9%	−1.5x
2026	962	+11.5%	0.8x	23.6	+246.5%	32.6x	−2.99	+40.6%	−2.6x
2027	1,021	+6.2%	0.8x	33.1	+40.1%	23.3x	−2.78	+7.1%	−2.8x
2028	1,088	+6.6%	0.7x	64.6	+95.1%	11.9x	−1.70	+38.9%	−4.6x

Estimate revisions

Change in consensus estimates over 1, 3 and 6 months
	Sales				EPS
Fiscal year	Estimate (mil)	1M	3M	6M	Estimate	1M	3M	6M
2026	962	+0.2%	+0.2%	+4.8%	−2.99	−13.6%	−14.3%	−3.5%
2027	1,021	+0.4%	+0.3%	+5.6%	−2.78	−13.2%	−13.8%	−16.4%
2028	1,088	+0.7%	+0.7%	+5.4%	−1.70	−13.4%	−14.7%	−27.1%

Earnings surprises EPS beat in 2 of the last 4 quarters

Reported results versus consensus, last 10 fiscal quarters
Quarter ended	Mar 2024	Jun 2024	Sep 2024	Dec 2024	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Sales reported (mil)	199	202	208	214	198	208	223	234	228	240
Sales mean (mil)	198	201	207	218	203	204	212	216	214	219
Surprise	+0.7%	+0.5%	+0.3%	−1.6%	−2.5%	+2.2%	+5.1%	+8.2%	+6.5%	+9.7%
EPS reported	−1.60	−1.00	−1.20	−1.60	−0.60	−1.86	−2.15	−0.61	−0.38	−0.99
EPS mean	−1.71	−1.40	−1.25	−1.37	−0.89	−0.83	−0.73	−0.58	−0.94	−1.05
Surprise	+6.7%	+28.6%	+4.2%	−16.4%	+32.4%	−123.1%	−195.9%	−4.7%	+59.4%	+5.7%

Peer comparison Food & Tobacco

Peers in the same industry group, by market capitalization
Company	Market cap	Net debt/EBITDA	Net margin	P/B	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E	FY1 EV/EBITDA	FY2 EV/EBITDA
OTLY Oatly Group AB	242M	77.56x	−17.7%	0.41x	−2.6x	−2.8x	32.6x	23.3x
MDLZ Mondelez International, Inc.	82.2B	3.14x	6.4%	3.10x	21.3x	19.3x	15.2x	14.2x
HSY The Hershey Company	33.3B	1.80x	7.6%	4.97x	19.1x	17.3x	12.4x	11.5x
KHC The Kraft Heinz Company	28.9B	2.86x	−23.4%	0.80x	11.9x	11.7x	9.2x	9.2x
GIS General Mills Inc	18.3B	3.92x	−0.5%	2.46x	11.1x	10.8x	10.2x	10.1x
SJM The J. M. Smucker Company	13.9B	3.31x	−1.5%	2.41x	12.0x	11.8x	9.5x	9.5x
Mean		15.43x	−4.9%	2.36x	12.1x	11.3x	14.9x	12.9x
Median		3.22x	−1.0%	2.44x	11.9x	11.7x	11.3x	10.8x

Technical analysis

1M−34.7%
3M−48.9%
1Y−50.4%
3Y−14.8%

Financial statements in millions of USD

Income statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Income statement, Oatly Group AB, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Total revenue	862	824	783	722	643	421
Cost of revenue	577	584	614	613	485	292
Gross profit	285	240	169	109	159	129
Selling, general & administrative expenses	311	315	362	405	344	164
Research & development	16.2	28.1	19.5	21.5	16.3	6.8
Depreciation/amortization	12.4	11.3	13.0	8.8	6.5	3.7
Interest expense (income), operating	0.2	2.1	3.0	3.8	0.7	−1.8
Unusual expense (income)	14.7	69.9	228	68.4	7.0	–
Other operating expenses	−1.3	−1.0	0.9	−2.4	−2.6	3.5
Operating income	−67.7	−186	−457	−396	−214	−47.1
Net interest income (expense)	−55.3	−6.6	68.2	−0.8	−0.8	−10.4
Gain (loss) on sale of assets	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other non-operating income (expense)	−21.9	−5.8	−19.4	−0.6	−0.5	−0.5
Net income before taxes	−145	−199	−408	−397	−215	−58.0
Provision for taxes	8.2	3.7	8.9	−4.8	−2.7	2.4
Minority interest	0.3	0.3	0.2	–	–	–
Equity in affiliates	–	–	–	–	–	–
U.S. GAAP adjustment	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income before extraordinary items	−153	−202	−417	−393	−212	−60.4
Extraordinary items	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income	−153	−202	−417	−393	−212	−60.4
EBIT, normalized	−47.9	−94.1	−211	−319	−195	−48.9
EBITDA, normalized	1.4	−44.1	−159	−271	−165	−35.5
Basic EPS, normalized	−5.03	−5.40	−14.00	−11.80	−6.60	–

Balance sheet in millions of USD, fiscal years

Balance sheet, Oatly Group AB, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Assets
Cash & short-term investments	64.3	98.9	249	82.6	546	106
Receivables	124	125	148	119	138	83.3
Total inventory	68.5	65.6	67.9	114	95.7	39.1
Prepaid expenses	8.6	9.4	16.9	23.4	27.7	11.5
Other current assets	0.1	0	0.9	143	0	0
Total current assets	265	299	483	482	807	240
Property, plant & equipment	333	340	449	602	668	276
Goodwill	128	107	118	113	130	144
Intangibles	9.3	9.0	12.1	14.8	15.6	12.6
Long-term investments	–	–	–	–	–	–
Note receivable	28.1	28.5	25.7	3.9	1.2	6.5
Other long-term assets	23.5	20.3	28.9	9.8	6.6	0
Total assets	787	804	1,117	1,225	1,629	679
Liabilities
Accounts payable	66.5	60.2	64.4	82.5	93.0	45.3
Payable/accrued	–	–	–	–	–	–
Accrued expenses	119	111	134	132	126	64.1
Short-term debt	0	0	0	0	0	107
Current portion of long-term debt	353	344	346	66.7	22.7	10.6
Other current liabilities	19.2	20.4	39.5	60.2	1.2	1.3
Total current liabilities	557	535	584	342	243	229
Long-term debt	208	148	187	85.0	127	116
Minority interest	1.1	1.4	1.8	–	–	–
Other liabilities	2.7	14.9	10.7	7.2	13.7	8.7
Total liabilities	769	699	783	434	384	353
Shareholders' equity
Preferred stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Common stock	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0
Additional paid-in capital	1,642	1,628	1,628	1,628	1,628	448
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)	−1,623	−1,249	−1,061	−666	−308	−120
Treasury stock	0	–	–	0	–	–
Other equity	−0.2	−274	−233	−171	−74.5	−2.5
Total equity	18.6	105	334	791	1,245	326
Total liabilities & shareholders' equity	787	804	1,117	1,225	1,629	679

Cash flow statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Cash flow statement, Oatly Group AB, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Operating activities
Net income	−153	−202	−417	−393	−212	−60.4
Depreciation, depletion & amortization	48.6	50.0	51.7	48.3	27.2	13.1
Deferred taxes	–	–	–	–	–	–
Non-cash items	93.4	62.5	211	105	27.3	16.0
Changes in working capital	−12.6	−24.7	−10.8	−29.9	−55.9	−13.0
Cash from operations	−23.7	−114	−166	−269	−214	−44.3
Investing activities
Capital expenditures	−15.3	−41.2	−69.0	−206	−282	−142
Other investing cash flows	−0.3	31.9	42.3	241	−263	0.4
Cash from investing	−15.5	−9.3	−26.7	34.8	−544	−141
Financing activities
Financing cash flow items	−12.7	−5.0	−32.5	0	−4.9	0
Cash dividends paid	–	–	–	–	–	–
Issuance (retirement) of debt, net	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other financing cash flows	13.9	−22.3	388	35.9	961	274
Cash from financing	1.2	−27.3	355	35.9	956	274
Foreign exchange effects	3.5	0.6	4.0	−14.7	−7.4	6.6
Net change in cash	−34.6	−150	167	−213	190	94.8
Free cash flow	−39.0	−156	−235	−475	−495	−186

Disclaimer

The financial data presented in this report is delayed and obtained from sources QDD Research believes to be reliable, including stock exchanges, SEDAR, and EDGAR. However, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information. QDD Research accepts no liability for any errors, omissions, or financial losses arising from the use of this data.

This report is generated using a fully systematic and quantitative approach. All factor scores and the overall quant rating (ranging from D to A+) are derived from algorithmic models and are based solely on objective financial metrics. These scores are intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.

QDD Research is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not provide personalized financial advice. The content is not tailored to the specific investment goals, financial situation, or risk profile of any individual investor. We strongly encourage readers to consult with a licensed broker or investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on the information contained in this report.

Live quote provided by TradingView. Report data updated Nov 1, 2026 after market close.