Alcoa Corp AA

MaterialsMetals & MiningUnited States of America

Last close 39.90 USD on Nov 2, 2026, −24.3% year to date

Quant rating

Quant rating B Rank 40 of 151 in Materials

Growth C 78 of 151
Valuation A 4 of 151
Quality A 5 of 151
Revisions C 96 of 151
Momentum C 102 of 151

Wall Street consensus Buy (2.33)Average target 54.47 USD +36.5%

Historical valuation

Multiples use consensus estimates for the next twelve months. The dashed line is the 5-year average.

Key data

Market cap: 10.5B
Enterprise value: 10.9B
52-week range: 35.12 – 84.31
3-year range: 22.57 – 84.31
Dividend yield: 1.02%
Beta (5 years): 1.84
Shares outstanding: 264M
Next earnings: Jan 20, 2027

About the company

Alcoa Corporation is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting and casting), and energy generation. The Company's operations are comprised of two business segments: Alumina and Aluminum. The Alumina segment primarily consists of its bauxite mines and alumina refineries, and its operations include the mining of bauxite and other aluminous ores, as well as the refining, production, and sale of smelter grade and non-metallurgical alumina. The alumina produced by this segment is sold primarily to internal and external aluminum smelter customers; a portion of the alumina is sold to external customers who process it into industrial chemical products. The Aluminum segment consists of the Company's aluminum smelting and casting operations along with the Company's energy production assets in Brazil, Canada, and the United States. It has direct and indirect ownership of over 25 operating locations across eight countries.

Growth and profitability fiscal year ends December 31

Growth and profitability by fiscal year
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	5Y avg
Revenue (mil)	12,831	11,895	10,551	12,451	12,152	–
Revenue growth	7.9%	12.7%	−15.3%	2.5%	30.9%	6.7%
EPS (basic, normalized)	3.77	1.35	−2.27	4.83	6.83	–
EPS growth	179.3%	–	–	−29.3%	–	–
Gross margin	16.9%	15.6%	7.0%	18.0%	24.7%	16.4%
Net margin	9.0%	0.5%	−6.2%	−1.0%	3.5%	1.2%
ROE	20.5%	1.3%	−14.0%	−2.5%	10.7%	3.2%

Balance sheet, last quarter
Cash & short-term investments (mil)	4,408
Current ratio	2.31x
Long-term debt (mil)	4,821
Net debt (mil)	414
Total equity (mil)	8,245
Net debt / equity	0.05x
Net debt / EBITDA	0.21x

Estimates and valuation

Consensus estimates and implied multiples
	Sales (mil)			EBITDA (mil)			EPS
Fiscal year	Mean est.	Growth	EV/Sales	Mean est.	Growth	EV/EBITDA	Mean est.	Growth	P/E
2025 actual	12,831	+7.9%	0.9x	1,984	+27.2%	5.5x	3.77	+179.3%	10.6x
2026	14,647	+14.2%	0.7x	2,986	+50.5%	3.7x	6.75	+79.1%	5.9x
2027	14,947	+2.0%	0.7x	2,915	−2.4%	3.8x	5.41	−19.9%	7.4x
2028	14,037	−6.1%	0.8x	2,575	−11.7%	4.3x	4.77	−11.9%	8.4x

Estimate revisions

Change in consensus estimates over 1, 3 and 6 months
	Sales				EPS
Fiscal year	Estimate (mil)	1M	3M	6M	Estimate	1M	3M	6M
2026	14,647	−0.5%	−0.6%	−0.9%	6.75	+8.6%	+10.0%	−2.4%
2027	14,947	−4.6%	−4.4%	+0.2%	5.41	−1.3%	−4.5%	−18.2%
2028	14,037	−7.4%	−5.9%	−4.9%	4.77	−19.9%	−9.5%	−21.5%

Earnings surprises EPS beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters

Reported results versus consensus, last 10 fiscal quarters
Quarter ended	Jun 2024	Sep 2024	Dec 2024	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026	Sep 2026
Sales reported (mil)	2,906	2,904	3,486	3,369	3,018	2,995	3,449	3,193	3,966	3,704
Sales mean (mil)	2,844	2,967	3,339	3,532	2,901	3,130	3,291	3,278	3,939	3,785
Surprise	+2.2%	−2.1%	+4.4%	−4.6%	+4.0%	−4.3%	+4.8%	−2.6%	+0.7%	−2.1%
EPS reported	0.16	0.57	1.04	2.15	0.39	−0.02	1.26	1.40	2.12	1.82
EPS mean	0.09	0.28	0.97	1.59	0.31	−0.21	0.92	1.49	2.06	1.47
Surprise	+76.0%	+102.6%	+6.7%	+35.4%	+25.5%	+90.3%	+37.6%	−6.3%	+3.1%	+23.6%

Peer comparison Metals & Mining

Peers in the same industry group, by market capitalization
Company	Market cap	Net debt/EBITDA	Net margin	P/B	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E	FY1 EV/EBITDA	FY2 EV/EBITDA
AA Alcoa Corp	10.5B	0.21x	9.0%	1.28x	5.9x	7.4x	3.7x	3.8x
RIO Rio Tinto Limited	142.2B	–	17.3%	2.54x	12.6x	12.4x	5.8x	5.5x
BHP BHP Group Ltd	202.8B	–	16.7%	3.99x	19.6x	21.1x	6.7x	6.6x
SCCO Southern Copper Corp	151.4B	0.00x	32.3%	11.74x	22.5x	23.8x	13.4x	13.9x
NEM Newmont Corporation	113.4B	−0.23x	31.3%	3.19x	11.9x	10.9x	6.5x	6.3x
RIO Rio Tinto plc	142.2B	–	17.3%	2.06x	10.2x	10.2x	5.7x	5.5x
Mean		−0.01x	20.6%	4.13x	13.8x	14.3x	7.0x	6.9x
Median		0.00x	17.3%	2.87x	12.3x	11.7x	6.2x	5.9x

Technical analysis

1M−4.6%
3M−11.5%
1Y+9.6%
3Y+58.0%

Financial statements in millions of USD

Income statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Income statement, Alcoa Corp, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Total revenue	12,831	11,895	10,551	12,451	12,152	9,286
Cost of revenue	10,658	10,044	9,813	10,212	9,153	7,969
Gross profit	2,173	1,851	738	2,239	2,999	1,317
Selling, general & administrative expenses	299	275	226	204	227	206
Research & development	24.0	57.0	39.0	32.0	31.0	27.0
Depreciation/amortization	623	642	632	617	664	653
Interest expense (income), operating	–	–	–	–	–	–
Unusual expense (income)	1,062	341	184	696	1,128	−77.0
Other operating expenses	0	0	0	0	0	0
Operating income	165	536	−343	690	949	508
Net interest income (expense)	851	−248	−276	32.0	−68.0	−223
Gain (loss) on sale of assets	−5.0	−37.0	−14.0	−10.0	354	−8.0
Other non-operating income (expense)	53.0	38.0	49.0	−10.0	−36.0	−104
Net income before taxes	1,064	289	−584	702	1,199	173
Provision for taxes	−55.0	265	189	664	629	187
Minority interest	38.0	36.0	122	−161	−141	−156
Equity in affiliates	–	–	–	–	–	–
U.S. GAAP adjustment	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income before extraordinary items	1,157	60.0	−651	−123	429	−170
Extraordinary items	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income	1,157	60.0	−651	−123	429	−170
EBIT, normalized	1,227	877	−159	1,386	2,077	431
EBITDA, normalized	1,850	1,519	473	2,003	2,741	1,084
Basic EPS, normalized	3.77	1.35	−2.27	4.83	6.83	–

Balance sheet in millions of USD, fiscal years

Balance sheet, Alcoa Corp, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Assets
Cash & short-term investments	1,597	1,138	944	1,363	1,814	1,607
Receivables	1,268	1,239	808	909	884	556
Total inventory	2,177	1,998	2,158	2,427	1,956	1,398
Prepaid expenses	353	471	434	362	354	287
Other current assets	74.0	68.0	61.0	189	18.0	672
Total current assets	5,469	4,914	4,405	5,250	5,026	4,520
Property, plant & equipment	6,700	6,389	6,785	6,493	6,623	7,190
Goodwill	0	142	146	145	144	145
Intangibles	34.0	36.0	37.0	29.0	35.0	45.0
Long-term investments	1,874	970	969	1,112	1,189	1,041
Note receivable	251	213	336	294	215	134
Other long-term assets	1,801	1,400	1,477	1,433	1,793	1,785
Total assets	16,129	14,064	14,155	14,756	15,025	14,860
Liabilities
Accounts payable	1,938	1,805	1,714	1,757	1,674	1,403
Payable/accrued	–	–	–	–	–	–
Accrued expenses	432	400	388	365	418	455
Short-term debt	9.0	50.0	56.0	0	0	0
Current portion of long-term debt	1.0	75.0	79.0	1.0	1.0	2.0
Other current liabilities	1,421	1,065	793	881	1,130	901
Total current liabilities	3,801	3,395	3,030	3,004	3,223	2,761
Long-term debt	2,438	2,470	1,732	1,806	1,726	2,463
Minority interest	76.0	0	1,594	1,513	1,612	1,705
Other liabilities	3,696	3,042	3,548	3,357	3,792	4,620
Total liabilities	10,011	8,907	9,904	9,680	10,353	11,549
Shareholders' equity
Preferred stock	0	–	–	–	–	–
Common stock	3.0	3.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0
Additional paid-in capital	11,575	11,587	9,187	9,183	9,577	9,663
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)	−271	−1,323	−1,293	−570	−315	−725
Treasury stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other equity	−5,189	−5,110	−3,645	−3,539	−4,592	−5,629
Total equity	6,118	5,157	4,251	5,076	4,672	3,311
Total liabilities & shareholders' equity	16,129	14,064	14,155	14,756	15,025	14,860

Cash flow statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Cash flow statement, Alcoa Corp, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Operating activities
Net income	1,119	24.0	−773	38.0	570	−14.0
Depreciation, depletion & amortization	623	642	632	617	664	653
Deferred taxes	−275	23.0	−22.0	219	147	−26.0
Non-cash items	194	448	548	813	790	148
Changes in working capital	−476	−515	−294	−865	−1,251	−367
Cash from operations	1,185	622	91.0	822	920	394
Investing activities
Capital expenditures	−618	−580	−531	−480	−390	−353
Other investing cash flows	116	−28.0	−54.0	−15.0	955	186
Cash from investing	−502	−608	−585	−495	565	−167
Financing activities
Financing cash flow items	8.0	−62.0	73.0	−221	−215	−225
Cash dividends paid	−105	−90.0	−72.0	−72.0	−19.0	–
Issuance (retirement) of debt, net	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other financing cash flows	−164	353	56.0	−475	−924	739
Cash from financing	−261	201	57.0	−768	−1,158	514
Foreign exchange effects	36.0	−28.0	10.0	−9.0	−13.0	−14.0
Net change in cash	458	187	−427	−450	314	727
Free cash flow	567	42.0	−440	342	530	41.0

Disclaimer

The financial data presented in this report is delayed and obtained from sources QDD Research believes to be reliable, including stock exchanges, SEDAR, and EDGAR. However, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information. QDD Research accepts no liability for any errors, omissions, or financial losses arising from the use of this data.

This report is generated using a fully systematic and quantitative approach. All factor scores and the overall quant rating (ranging from D to A+) are derived from algorithmic models and are based solely on objective financial metrics. These scores are intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.

QDD Research is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not provide personalized financial advice. The content is not tailored to the specific investment goals, financial situation, or risk profile of any individual investor. We strongly encourage readers to consult with a licensed broker or investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on the information contained in this report.

Live quote provided by TradingView. Report data updated Nov 2, 2026 after market close.