Blue Bird Corporation BLBD

IndustrialsMachinery, Tools, Heavy Vehicles, Trains & ShipsUnited States of America

Last close 56.35 USD on Nov 1, 2026, +18.9% year to date

Quant rating

Quant rating A Rank 29 of 486 in Industrials

Growth B 161 of 486
Valuation A 8 of 486
Quality A 4 of 486
Revisions C 278 of 486
Momentum C 254 of 486

Wall Street consensus Buy (1.67)Average target 88.84 USD +57.7%

Historical valuation

Multiples use consensus estimates for the next twelve months. The dashed line is the 5-year average.

Key data

Market cap: 1.8B
Enterprise value: 1.8B
52-week range: 46.27 – 83.30
3-year range: 17.79 – 83.30
Dividend yield: –
Beta (5 years): 1.45
Shares outstanding: 31.3M
Next earnings: Nov 23, 2026

About the company

Blue Bird Corporation is an independent designer and manufacturer of school buses. The Company is a principal manufacturer of chassis and body production specifically designed for school bus applications in the United States. In addition, the Company specializes in alternative powered product offerings with its propane powered, gasoline powered and all-electric powered school buses. The Company’s segments include Bus and Parts. The Bus segment involves the design, engineering, manufacture and sale of school buses and extended warranties. The Parts segment includes the sale of replacement bus parts. The Company’s ability spans Type A, C, and D school buses, as well as multi-purpose and commercial vehicles across diesel, gasoline, propane, and electric powertrains. The Company sells its buses and parts through an extensive network of United States and Canadian dealers that, in their territories, are exclusive to Blue Bird on Type C and Type D school buses.

Growth and profitability fiscal year ends September 30

Growth and profitability by fiscal year
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	5Y avg
Revenue (mil)	1,480	1,347	1,133	801	684	–
Revenue growth	9.9%	18.9%	41.5%	17.1%	−22.2%	11.0%
EPS (basic, normalized)	4.38	3.46	1.07	−1.15	0.31	–
EPS growth	26.6%	223.4%	–	–	–	–
Gross margin	20.5%	19.0%	12.3%	4.6%	10.5%	13.4%
Net margin	8.6%	7.8%	2.1%	−5.7%	0.0%	2.6%
ROE	61.6%	105.8%	115.1%	–	–	94.1%

Balance sheet, last quarter
Cash & short-term investments (mil)	117
Current ratio	1.64x
Long-term debt (mil)	110
Net debt (mil)	−1.1
Total equity (mil)	655
Net debt / equity	−0.00x
Net debt / EBITDA	−0.00x

Estimates and valuation

Consensus estimates and implied multiples
	Sales (mil)			EBITDA (mil)			EPS
Fiscal year	Mean est.	Growth	EV/Sales	Mean est.	Growth	EV/EBITDA	Mean est.	Growth	P/E
2025 actual	1,480	+9.9%	1.2x	221	+25.3%	7.9x	4.38	+26.6%	12.9x
2026	1,753	+18.4%	1.0x	239	+8.0%	7.3x	4.88	+11.3%	11.6x
2027	2,005	+14.4%	0.9x	268	+12.1%	6.5x	4.64	−4.8%	12.1x
2028	2,280	+13.7%	0.8x	287	+7.1%	6.1x	5.54	+19.3%	10.2x

Estimate revisions

Change in consensus estimates over 1, 3 and 6 months
	Sales				EPS
Fiscal year	Estimate (mil)	1M	3M	6M	Estimate	1M	3M	6M
2026	1,753	0.0%	+2.0%	+14.1%	4.88	0.0%	−0.7%	+5.2%
2027	2,005	−0.6%	+2.7%	+22.2%	4.64	0.0%	−15.9%	−8.1%
2028	2,280	+0.4%	+22.7%	+36.8%	5.54	0.0%	−8.6%	+7.4%

Earnings surprises EPS beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters

Reported results versus consensus, last 10 fiscal quarters
Quarter ended	Mar 2024	Jun 2024	Sep 2024	Dec 2024	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Sales reported (mil)	346	333	350	314	359	398	409	333	353	517
Sales mean (mil)	298	329	331	308	355	378	380	326	335	486
Surprise	+15.9%	+1.4%	+5.9%	+1.8%	+1.0%	+5.4%	+7.6%	+2.3%	+5.2%	+6.5%
EPS reported	0.89	0.91	0.77	0.92	0.96	1.19	1.32	1.00	1.00	1.28
EPS mean	0.48	0.51	0.66	0.82	0.95	0.96	1.03	0.82	0.88	1.30
Surprise	+83.5%	+77.6%	+17.6%	+12.7%	+1.2%	+23.5%	+27.7%	+22.5%	+13.2%	−1.6%

Peer comparison Machinery, Tools, Heavy Vehicles, Trains & Ships

Peers in the same industry group, by market capitalization
Company	Market cap	Net debt/EBITDA	Net margin	P/B	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E	FY1 EV/EBITDA	FY2 EV/EBITDA
BLBD Blue Bird Corporation	1.8B	−0.00x	8.6%	2.70x	11.6x	12.1x	7.3x	6.5x
CAT Caterpillar Inc	286.3B	2.87x	13.1%	13.33x	22.8x	19.2x	18.4x	15.7x
DE Deere & Co	182.1B	6.48x	11.0%	6.51x	37.3x	29.7x	32.2x	27.3x
BE Bloom Energy Corporation	60.1B	0.75x	−4.4%	31.06x	62.3x	37.4x	56.7x	31.1x
PCAR Paccar Inc	53.7B	1.93x	8.4%	2.56x	17.3x	14.7x	15.5x	13.6x
CNH CNH Industrial N.V.	14.6B	22.10x	2.8%	1.88x	26.4x	16.8x	35.4x	26.4x
Mean		5.69x	6.6%	9.67x	29.6x	21.7x	27.6x	20.1x
Median		2.40x	8.5%	4.61x	24.6x	18.0x	25.3x	21.1x

Technical analysis

1M−1.9%
3M−24.3%
1Y+4.2%
3Y+199.9%

Financial statements in millions of USD

Income statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Income statement, Blue Bird Corporation, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Total revenue	1,480	1,347	1,133	801	684	879
Cost of revenue	1,177	1,091	994	764	612	783
Gross profit	304	256	139	36.5	72.1	96.2
Selling, general & administrative expenses	121	107	80.6	71.1	60.4	67.8
Research & development	15.2	9.4	6.6	6.1	5.2	6.4
Interest expense (income), operating	–	–	–	–	–	–
Unusual expense (income)	0	4.7	7.9	0.6	0.6	–
Other operating expenses	0	0	0	0	0	0
Operating income	167	135	43.7	−41.3	5.9	22.0
Net interest income (expense)	−1.0	−6.4	−17.0	−14.7	−9.7	−12.2
Gain (loss) on sale of assets	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other non-operating income (expense)	3.4	−1.2	−0.9	2.9	1.8	0.7
Net income before taxes	170	127	25.8	−53.1	−2.0	10.5
Provision for taxes	43.9	33.2	9.0	−11.5	−1.2	1.5
Minority interest	–	–	–	–	–	–
Equity in affiliates	2.1	11.8	7.0	−4.2	0.5	3.2
U.S. GAAP adjustment	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income before extraordinary items	128	106	23.8	−45.8	−0.3	12.2
Extraordinary items	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income	128	106	23.8	−45.8	−0.3	12.2
EBIT, normalized	175	139	53.4	−32.7	11.9	23.6
EBITDA, normalized	190	154	69.4	−18.6	25.4	38.0
Basic EPS, normalized	4.38	3.46	1.07	−1.15	0.31	–

Balance sheet in millions of USD, fiscal years

Balance sheet, Blue Bird Corporation, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Assets
Cash & short-term investments	229	128	79.0	10.5	11.7	44.5
Receivables	20.6	59.1	12.6	12.5	10.0	7.6
Total inventory	139	128	135	143	125	56.5
Prepaid expenses	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other current assets	22.2	8.8	9.2	8.5	9.2	8.2
Total current assets	412	323	236	174	156	117
Property, plant & equipment	109	97.7	96.1	102	111	110
Goodwill	18.8	18.8	18.8	18.8	18.8	18.8
Intangibles	41.7	43.6	45.4	47.4	49.4	51.6
Long-term investments	35.2	32.1	17.6	10.7	14.8	14.3
Note receivable	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other long-term assets	9.4	9.4	3.7	12.4	5.9	5.4
Total assets	625	525	418	366	356	317
Liabilities
Accounts payable	151	143	137	108	72.3	57.6
Payable/accrued	–	–	–	–	–	–
Accrued expenses	64.9	64.8	41.2	25.2	20.8	25.2
Short-term debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Current portion of long-term debt	5.0	6.0	20.4	20.4	16.2	11.2
Other current liabilities	15.4	22.0	30.9	11.2	15.5	17.7
Total current liabilities	237	236	230	165	125	112
Long-term debt	85.3	90.0	112	152	199	170
Minority interest	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other liabilities	47.7	39.4	36.6	48.0	64.8	88.9
Total liabilities	370	365	378	365	389	371
Shareholders' equity
Preferred stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Common stock	0	0	0	0	0	0
Additional paid-in capital	195	186	178	173	96.2	88.9
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)	88.2	0	−55.7	−79.5	−33.8	−33.5
Treasury stock	–	0	−50.3	−50.3	−50.3	−50.3
Other equity	−28.2	−26.4	−31.9	−41.9	−44.8	−58.4
Total equity	255	160	40.0	1.4	−32.7	−53.2
Total liabilities & shareholders' equity	625	525	418	366	356	317

Cash flow statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Cash flow statement, Blue Bird Corporation, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Operating activities
Net income	128	106	23.8	−45.8	−0.3	12.2
Depreciation, depletion & amortization	15.6	14.8	16.0	14.1	13.4	14.4
Deferred taxes	2.9	−1.7	8.1	−11.1	−0.9	0
Non-cash items	13.6	−0.4	0.5	25.8	10.0	6.2
Changes in working capital	16.3	−7.2	71.6	−7.4	−76.4	−29.4
Cash from operations	176	111	120	−24.4	−54.2	3.5
Investing activities
Capital expenditures	−22.9	−15.3	−8.5	−6.5	−12.2	−19.0
Other investing cash flows	−1.0	−0.6	0	0	0.9	0.2
Cash from investing	−23.9	−15.8	−8.5	−6.5	−11.3	−18.8
Financing activities
Financing cash flow items	0	−3.1	−3.3	−3.0	−2.5	−0.9
Cash dividends paid	–	–	–	–	–	0
Issuance (retirement) of debt, net	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other financing cash flows	−50.7	−43.5	−39.6	32.6	35.2	−10.2
Cash from financing	−50.7	−46.6	−42.9	29.7	32.8	−11.1
Foreign exchange effects	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net change in cash	102	48.7	68.5	−1.2	−32.8	−26.5
Free cash flow	153	95.8	111	−30.9	−66.5	−15.5

Disclaimer

The financial data presented in this report is delayed and obtained from sources QDD Research believes to be reliable, including stock exchanges, SEDAR, and EDGAR. However, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information. QDD Research accepts no liability for any errors, omissions, or financial losses arising from the use of this data.

This report is generated using a fully systematic and quantitative approach. All factor scores and the overall quant rating (ranging from D to A+) are derived from algorithmic models and are based solely on objective financial metrics. These scores are intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.

QDD Research is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not provide personalized financial advice. The content is not tailored to the specific investment goals, financial situation, or risk profile of any individual investor. We strongly encourage readers to consult with a licensed broker or investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on the information contained in this report.

Live quote provided by TradingView. Report data updated Nov 1, 2026 after market close.