The Progressive Corporation PGR

FinancialsInsuranceUnited States of America

Last close 231.28 USD on Nov 1, 2026, +8.2% year to date

Quant rating

Quant rating A Rank 94 of 799 in Financials

Growth C 353 of 799
Valuation B 130 of 799
Quality B 172 of 799
Revisions B 303 of 799
Momentum B 187 of 799

Wall Street consensus Hold (2.67)Average target 228.39 USD −1.2%

Historical valuation

Multiples use consensus estimates for the next twelve months. The dashed line is the 5-year average.

Key data

Market cap: 134.0B
Enterprise value: 142.2B
52-week range: 189.31 – 239.38
3-year range: 153.41 – 291.22
Dividend yield: 0.17%
Beta (5 years): 0.23
Shares outstanding: 580M
Next earnings: Mar 1, 2027

About the company

The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company, which has insurance and non-insurance subsidiaries and affiliates. The Company's segments include Personal Lines, Commercial Lines and Other indemnity. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products. Its special lines of products include recreational vehicles, such as motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft. The Company's Personal Lines products are sold through both the agency and direct channels. The Commercial Lines segment writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance, business-related general liability and commercial property insurance predominately for small businesses, and workers’ compensation insurance primarily for the transportation industry. Its reinsurance activity includes both transactions which are regulated and those that are non-regulated. It offers Snapshot through hardware-based and/or mobile-app versions in all states, other than California.

Growth and profitability fiscal year ends December 31

Growth and profitability by fiscal year
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	5Y avg
Revenue (mil)	83,361	72,276	59,864	50,263	45,332	–
Revenue growth	15.3%	20.7%	19.1%	10.9%	13.1%	15.8%
EPS (basic, normalized)	18.25	14.05	6.10	4.44	3.48	–
EPS growth	29.9%	130.3%	37.4%	27.6%	–	–
Gross margin	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net margin	12.9%	11.2%	6.2%	1.4%	7.0%	7.7%
ROE	38.2%	36.0%	19.8%	15.3%	11.6%	24.2%

Balance sheet, last quarter
Cash & short-term investments (mil)	–
Current ratio	–
Long-term debt (mil)	8,387
Net debt (mil)	–
Total equity (mil)	34,333
Net debt / equity	–

Estimates and valuation

Consensus estimates and implied multiples
	Sales (mil)			Book value per share			EPS
Fiscal year	Mean est.	Growth	EV/Sales	Mean est.	Growth	P/B	Mean est.	Growth	P/E
2025 actual	83,361	+15.3%	1.7x	51.75	+11.6%	4.5x	18.25	+29.9%	12.7x
2026	87,815	+5.3%	1.6x	59.19	+14.4%	3.9x	18.42	+0.9%	12.6x
2027	91,238	+3.9%	1.6x	67.91	+14.7%	3.4x	16.18	−12.2%	14.3x
2028	95,670	+4.9%	1.5x	72.28	+6.4%	3.2x	16.01	−1.1%	14.4x

Estimate revisions

Change in consensus estimates over 1, 3 and 6 months
	Sales				EPS
Fiscal year	Estimate (mil)	1M	3M	6M	Estimate	1M	3M	6M
2026	87,815	−0.7%	−0.4%	−1.2%	18.42	+2.3%	+4.8%	+12.8%
2027	91,238	−2.0%	−2.2%	−4.3%	16.18	−0.1%	−0.6%	−0.1%
2028	95,670	−3.1%	−3.7%	−4.5%	16.01	−1.0%	−1.3%	−0.6%

Earnings surprises EPS beat in 4 of the last 4 quarters

Reported results versus consensus, last 10 fiscal quarters
Quarter ended	Jun 2024	Sep 2024	Dec 2024	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026	Sep 2026
Sales reported (mil)	17,902	19,456	18,105	22,206	20,076	21,384	19,508	23,641	21,077	22,301
Sales mean (mil)	17,637	19,052	18,355	21,467	20,599	21,819	20,044	22,955	21,599	22,468
Surprise	+1.5%	+2.1%	−1.4%	+3.4%	−2.5%	−2.0%	−2.7%	+3.0%	−2.4%	−0.7%
EPS reported	2.65	3.59	4.08	4.65	4.88	4.05	4.67	4.96	4.85	4.60
EPS mean	2.02	3.67	3.58	4.79	4.43	5.04	4.41	4.86	4.82	4.37
Surprise	+31.5%	−2.3%	+13.9%	−3.0%	+10.2%	−19.6%	+5.8%	+2.0%	+0.5%	+5.2%

Peer comparison Insurance

Peers in the same industry group, by market capitalization
Company	Market cap	ROE	Net margin	P/B	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E	FY1 P/B	FY2 P/B
PGR The Progressive Corporation	134.0B	38.2%	12.9%	3.91x	12.6x	14.3x	3.9x	3.4x
CB Chubb Limited	139.1B	14.4%	17.4%	1.90x	12.5x	12.3x	1.8x	1.6x
MRSH Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.	95.4B	33.4%	15.4%	6.50x	19.1x	17.5x	6.4x	5.5x
TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc.	81.2B	20.8%	12.8%	2.80x	10.8x	12.7x	2.5x	2.3x
AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.	70.8B	12.8%	10.7%	2.94x	21.1x	18.6x	2.7x	2.5x
MET MetLife, Inc.	63.6B	21.4%	4.1%	2.32x	9.8x	9.0x	1.9x	1.7x
Mean		23.5%	12.2%	3.40x	14.3x	14.1x	3.2x	2.8x
Median		21.1%	12.8%	2.87x	12.5x	13.5x	2.6x	2.4x

Technical analysis

1M+10.5%
3M+5.4%
1Y+16.3%
3Y+65.4%

Financial statements in millions of USD

Income statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Income statement, The Progressive Corporation, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Premiums earned	83,361	72,276	59,864	50,263	45,332	40,092
Other revenue	4,276	3,067	2,219	−676	2,345	2,547
Total revenue	87,637	75,343	62,082	49,586	47,676	42,638
Losses, benefits and adjustments	65,288	58,522	51,896	43,982	39,282	30,692
Amortization of policy acquisition costs	6,096	5,383	4,665	3,917	3,713	3,273
Selling, general & administrative expenses	–	–	–	–	–	–
Interest expense (income), operating	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other operating expenses	1,752	446	349	522	253	1,283
Operating income	14,501	10,992	5,172	1,166	4,429	7,390
Net interest income (expense)	−278	−279	−268	−244	−219	−217
Gain (loss) on sale of assets	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other non-operating income (expense)	0	0	0	0	0	0
Net income before taxes	14,223	10,713	4,904	922	4,210	7,173
Provision for taxes	2,915	2,233	1,001	201	859	1,469
Minority interest	–	–	–	–	0	0
Equity in affiliates	–	–	–	–	–	–
U.S. GAAP adjustment	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income before extraordinary items	11,308	8,480	3,902	722	3,351	5,705
Extraordinary items	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income	11,308	8,480	3,902	722	3,351	5,705
Basic weighted average shares (mil)	586	586	585	584	584	585
Diluted weighted average shares (mil)	588	588	588	587	587	588
Basic EPS, normalized	18.25	14.05	6.10	4.44	3.48	–

Balance sheet in millions of USD, fiscal years

Balance sheet, The Progressive Corporation, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Assets
Total receivables	–	–	–	–	–	–
Prepaid expenses	–	–	–	–	–	–
Property, plant & equipment	982	983	1,053	1,164	1,310	1,272
Goodwill	–	228	228	228	453	453
Intangibles	–	–	–	86.3	117	171
Insurance receivables	15,362	14,369	11,958	10,417	9,400	8,160
Long-term investments	97,373	80,250	65,999	53,548	51,514	47,530
Note receivable	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other long-term assets	761	965	951	1,149	15.0	0
Deferred policy acquisition costs	2,044	1,961	1,687	1,544	1,356	1,237
Other assets	6,392	6,846	6,730	7,124	6,781	5,199
Total assets	123,039	105,745	88,691	75,465	71,132	64,098
Liabilities
Accounts payable	9,113	10,150	6,825	5,396	5,830	4,777
Payable/accrued	–	–	–	–	–	–
Accrued expenses	205	196	177	137	181	179
Policy liabilities	68,529	62,915	54,523	47,653	41,780	33,703
Short-term debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Current portion of long-term debt	0	0	0	0	0	500
Long-term debt	6,897	6,893	6,889	6,388	4,899	4,896
Minority interest	–	–	–	–	–	0
Other liabilities	7,972	0	0	0	211	3,004
Total liabilities	92,716	80,154	68,414	59,574	52,901	47,060
Shareholders' equity
Preferred stock	–	0	494	494	494	494
Common stock	586	586	585	585	584	585
Additional paid-in capital	2,307	2,145	2,013	1,893	1,773	1,673
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)	27,327	24,283	18,800	15,721	15,340	13,355
Treasury stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other equity	103	−1,423	−1,616	−2,802	40.7	932
Total equity	30,323	25,591	20,277	15,891	18,232	17,039
Total liabilities & shareholders' equity	123,039	105,745	88,691	75,465	71,132	64,098

Cash flow statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Cash flow statement, The Progressive Corporation, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Operating activities
Net income	11,308	8,480	3,902	722	3,351	5,705
Depreciation, depletion & amortization	313	284	300	337	337	332
Deferred taxes	–	–	–	–	–	–
Non-cash items	24.0	105	199	322	227	203
Changes in working capital	5,903	6,250	6,242	5,469	3,846	666
Cash from operations	17,548	15,119	10,643	6,849	7,762	6,906
Investing activities
Capital expenditures	−348	−285	−252	−292	−244	−224
Other investing cash flows	−14,179	−13,464	−10,591	−7,664	−2,876	−5,894
Cash from investing	−14,527	−13,749	−10,843	−7,956	−3,120	−6,118
Financing activities
Financing cash flow items	–	–	–	0	−20.0	−243
Cash dividends paid	−2,871	−682	−278	−261	−3,773	−1,578
Issuance (retirement) of debt, net	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other financing cash flows	−166	−634	356	1,387	−723	882
Cash from financing	−3,037	−1,316	78.0	1,126	−4,516	−939
Foreign exchange effects	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net change in cash	−16.0	54.0	−121	18.8	126	−151
Free cash flow	17,200	14,834	10,391	6,557	7,518	6,682

Disclaimer

The financial data presented in this report is delayed and obtained from sources QDD Research believes to be reliable, including stock exchanges, SEDAR, and EDGAR. However, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information. QDD Research accepts no liability for any errors, omissions, or financial losses arising from the use of this data.

This report is generated using a fully systematic and quantitative approach. All factor scores and the overall quant rating (ranging from D to A+) are derived from algorithmic models and are based solely on objective financial metrics. These scores are intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.

QDD Research is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not provide personalized financial advice. The content is not tailored to the specific investment goals, financial situation, or risk profile of any individual investor. We strongly encourage readers to consult with a licensed broker or investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on the information contained in this report.

Live quote provided by TradingView. Report data updated Nov 1, 2026 after market close.