Packaging Corp of America PKG

MaterialsContainers & PackagingUnited States of America

Last close 256.82 USD on Nov 1, 2026, +26.9% year to date

Quant rating

Quant rating B Rank 47 of 151 in Materials

Growth A 22 of 151
Valuation D 141 of 151
Quality C 98 of 151
Revisions A 7 of 151
Momentum A 14 of 151

Wall Street consensus Buy (2.18)Average target 266.32 USD +3.7%

Historical valuation

Multiples use consensus estimates for the next twelve months. The dashed line is the 5-year average.

Key data

Market cap: 22.9B
Enterprise value: 26.3B
52-week range: 191.50 – 259.25
3-year range: 153.08 – 259.25
Dividend yield: 2.34%
Beta (5 years): 0.80
Shares outstanding: 89.1M
Next earnings: Jan 25, 2027

About the company

Packaging Corporation of America is a producer of containerboard products and a producer of uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper in North America. The Company operates approximately 10 mills and 91 corrugated products manufacturing plants. Its segments include Packaging, Paper and Corporate and Other. Its containerboard mills produce linerboard and corrugating medium, which are papers primarily used in the production of corrugated products. Its corrugated products manufacturing plants produce a variety of corrugated packaging products. In addition, it also produces packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products. It manufactures and sells UFS papers, including both commodity and specialty papers, which may have custom or specialized features, such as colors, coatings, high brightness, and recycled content. Its papers consist of communication papers, including cut-size office papers and printing and converting papers.

Growth and profitability fiscal year ends December 31

Growth and profitability by fiscal year
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	5Y avg
Revenue (mil)	8,989	8,383	7,802	8,478	7,730	–
Revenue growth	7.2%	7.4%	−8.0%	9.7%	16.1%	6.2%
EPS (basic, normalized)	9.84	9.04	8.70	11.14	9.39	–
EPS growth	8.8%	3.9%	−21.9%	18.6%	–	–
Gross margin	21.0%	21.3%	21.8%	24.7%	24.2%	22.6%
Net margin	8.6%	9.5%	9.7%	12.1%	10.8%	10.1%
ROE	17.2%	19.2%	20.0%	28.3%	24.5%	21.8%

Balance sheet, last quarter
Cash & short-term investments (mil)	762
Current ratio	2.94x
Long-term debt (mil)	3,973
Net debt (mil)	3,381
Total equity (mil)	4,662
Net debt / equity	0.73x
Net debt / EBITDA	1.82x

Estimates and valuation

Consensus estimates and implied multiples
	Sales (mil)			EBITDA (mil)			EPS
Fiscal year	Mean est.	Growth	EV/Sales	Mean est.	Growth	EV/EBITDA	Mean est.	Growth	P/E
2025 actual	8,989	+7.2%	2.9x	1,862	+12.0%	14.1x	9.84	+8.8%	26.1x
2026	10,087	+12.2%	2.6x	2,116	+13.7%	12.4x	10.58	+7.5%	24.3x
2027	10,975	+8.8%	2.4x	2,549	+20.5%	10.3x	13.97	+32.0%	18.4x
2028	11,314	+3.1%	2.3x	2,634	+3.3%	10.0x	14.56	+4.2%	17.6x

Estimate revisions

Change in consensus estimates over 1, 3 and 6 months
	Sales				EPS
Fiscal year	Estimate (mil)	1M	3M	6M	Estimate	1M	3M	6M
2026	10,087	0.0%	+0.2%	+1.8%	10.58	+1.2%	+1.4%	+2.5%
2027	10,975	+1.6%	+2.8%	+5.7%	13.97	+6.8%	+10.1%	+14.6%
2028	11,314	+1.9%	+2.7%	+5.3%	14.56	+7.6%	+8.9%	+11.4%

Earnings surprises EPS beat in 2 of the last 4 quarters

Reported results versus consensus, last 10 fiscal quarters
Quarter ended	Mar 2024	Jun 2024	Sep 2024	Dec 2024	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Sales reported (mil)	1,980	2,075	2,182	2,146	2,141	2,171	2,313	2,364	2,368	2,490
Sales mean (mil)	1,909	2,025	2,094	2,130	2,108	2,187	2,302	2,438	2,417	2,502
Surprise	+3.7%	+2.5%	+4.2%	+0.7%	+1.5%	−0.7%	+0.5%	−3.0%	−2.0%	−0.5%
EPS reported	1.72	2.20	2.65	2.47	2.31	2.48	2.73	2.32	2.40	2.35
EPS mean	1.68	2.14	2.50	2.53	2.21	2.44	2.81	2.41	2.13	2.31
Surprise	+2.5%	+2.9%	+6.0%	−2.5%	+4.7%	+1.8%	−2.9%	−3.6%	+12.5%	+1.6%

Peer comparison Containers & Packaging

Peers in the same industry group, by market capitalization
Company	Market cap	Net debt/EBITDA	Net margin	P/B	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E	FY1 EV/EBITDA	FY2 EV/EBITDA
PKG Packaging Corp of America	22.9B	1.82x	8.6%	4.91x	24.3x	18.4x	12.4x	10.3x
SW Smurfit WestRock PLC	22.6B	2.70x	2.2%	1.26x	21.2x	13.2x	7.5x	6.2x
AMCR Amcor PLC	21.9B	–	4.7%	1.86x	11.7x	11.1x	9.3x	9.0x
IP International Paper Co	19.3B	2.98x	−12.0%	1.47x	31.4x	13.1x	8.5x	6.2x
BALL Ball Corp	17.6B	3.16x	6.9%	3.06x	16.5x	14.7x	11.2x	10.6x
AVY Avery Dennison Corp	13.8B	2.30x	7.8%	5.78x	17.9x	16.4x	11.2x	10.8x
Mean		2.59x	3.0%	3.05x	20.5x	14.5x	10.0x	8.8x
Median		2.70x	5.8%	2.46x	19.5x	13.9x	10.3x	9.6x

Technical analysis

1M+9.5%
3M+2.1%
1Y+27.7%
3Y+84.5%

Financial statements in millions of USD

Income statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Income statement, Packaging Corp of America, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Total revenue	8,989	8,383	7,802	8,478	7,730	6,658
Cost of revenue	7,100	6,600	6,104	6,387	5,857	5,272
Gross profit	1,890	1,783	1,699	2,091	1,873	1,386
Selling, general & administrative expenses	634	610	581	609	577	540
Research & development	–	–	–	–	–	–
Interest expense (income), operating	–	–	–	–	–	–
Unusual expense (income)	122	48.3	41.4	51.3	101	118
Other operating expenses	26.7	23.2	1.5	10.0	12.9	5.1
Operating income	1,107	1,101	1,075	1,421	1,182	724
Net interest income (expense)	−79.1	−41.4	−53.3	−70.4	−93.5	−93.5
Gain (loss) on sale of assets	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other non-operating income (expense)	−0.1	4.5	−7.7	14.5	19.7	2.3
Net income before taxes	1,028	1,064	1,014	1,365	1,109	633
Provision for taxes	254	259	249	335	268	172
Minority interest	–	–	–	–	–	–
Equity in affiliates	–	–	–	–	–	–
U.S. GAAP adjustment	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income before extraordinary items	774	805	765	1,030	841	461
Extraordinary items	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income	774	805	765	1,030	841	461
EBIT, normalized	1,229	1,153	1,132	1,471	1,284	842
EBITDA, normalized	1,882	1,679	1,650	1,928	1,701	1,252
Basic EPS, normalized	9.84	9.04	8.70	11.14	9.39	–

Balance sheet in millions of USD, fiscal years

Balance sheet, Packaging Corp of America, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Assets
Cash & short-term investments	601	787	1,142	405	705	1,080
Receivables	1,284	1,154	1,038	1,068	1,078	838
Total inventory	1,243	1,125	1,013	977	902	788
Prepaid expenses	85.8	167	62.3	58.3	47.0	44.7
Other current assets	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total current assets	3,214	3,233	3,254	2,508	2,733	2,750
Property, plant & equipment	5,361	4,316	4,143	4,198	3,767	3,428
Goodwill	1,372	922	922	922	924	864
Intangibles	602	192	230	268	308	296
Long-term investments	67.0	65.2	64.1	64.9	60.0	42.7
Note receivable	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other long-term assets	109	105	67.2	42.0	44.9	53.2
Total assets	10,726	8,833	8,681	8,004	7,837	7,433
Liabilities
Accounts payable	471	430	402	410	452	387
Payable/accrued	–	–	–	–	–	–
Accrued expenses	425	453	346	348	334	297
Short-term debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Current portion of long-term debt	2.3	2.1	402	1.9	1.7	1.6
Other current liabilities	116	116	116	116	96.3	97.0
Total current liabilities	1,015	1,002	1,266	876	885	783
Long-term debt	3,972	2,481	2,481	2,484	2,484	2,494
Minority interest	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other liabilities	1,140	947	937	977	861	910
Total liabilities	6,128	4,429	4,684	4,337	4,230	4,187
Shareholders' equity
Preferred stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Common stock	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9
Additional paid-in capital	708	670	620	582	579	554
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)	3,931	3,777	3,447	3,187	3,102	2,836
Treasury stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other equity	−41.6	−43.4	−70.9	−102	−75.2	−144
Total equity	4,598	4,404	3,997	3,667	3,607	3,246
Total liabilities & shareholders' equity	10,726	8,833	8,681	8,004	7,837	7,433

Cash flow statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Cash flow statement, Packaging Corp of America, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Operating activities
Net income	774	805	765	1,030	841	461
Depreciation, depletion & amortization	653	526	518	457	418	410
Deferred taxes	97.3	−4.2	5.2	86.0	59.4	34.7
Non-cash items	88.0	75.3	33.8	7.5	63.5	49.4
Changes in working capital	−54.7	−211	−6.8	−85.1	−287	77.8
Cash from operations	1,558	1,191	1,315	1,495	1,094	1,033
Investing activities
Capital expenditures	−831	−672	−472	−830	−607	−428
Other investing cash flows	−1,742	394	−403	−3.3	−188	1.5
Cash from investing	−2,573	−278	−875	−834	−794	−426
Financing activities
Financing cash flow items	−29.9	−25.7	−16.8	−15.4	−15.3	−10.5
Cash dividends paid	−450	−449	−449	−420	−380	−300
Issuance (retirement) of debt, net	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other financing cash flows	1,339	−402	354	−524	−260	−1.5
Cash from financing	859	−876	−112	−960	−656	−312
Foreign exchange effects	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net change in cash	−156	37.0	328	−299	−356	295
Free cash flow	726	520	843	665	487	605

Disclaimer

The financial data presented in this report is delayed and obtained from sources QDD Research believes to be reliable, including stock exchanges, SEDAR, and EDGAR. However, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information. QDD Research accepts no liability for any errors, omissions, or financial losses arising from the use of this data.

This report is generated using a fully systematic and quantitative approach. All factor scores and the overall quant rating (ranging from D to A+) are derived from algorithmic models and are based solely on objective financial metrics. These scores are intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.

QDD Research is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not provide personalized financial advice. The content is not tailored to the specific investment goals, financial situation, or risk profile of any individual investor. We strongly encourage readers to consult with a licensed broker or investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on the information contained in this report.

Live quote provided by TradingView. Report data updated Nov 1, 2026 after market close.