Athabasca Oil Corporation ATH

EnergyOil & GasCanada

Last close 11.77 CAD on Nov 2, 2026, +67.4% year to date

Quant rating

Quant rating B Rank 25 of 73 in Energy

Growth C 31 of 73
Valuation D 61 of 73
Quality B 14 of 73
Revisions B 16 of 73
Momentum C 30 of 73

Wall Street consensus Hold (2.88)Average target 12.11 CAD +2.9%

Historical valuation

Multiples use consensus estimates for the next twelve months. The dashed line is the 5-year average.

Key data

Market cap: 5.6B
Enterprise value: 5.7B
52-week range: 6.22 – 12.86
3-year range: 3.36 – 12.86
Dividend yield: –
Beta (5 years): 0.50
Shares outstanding: 479M
Next earnings: Mar 2, 2027

About the company

Athabasca Oil Corporation is a Canadian energy company which is focused on the development of thermal and light oil assets. The Company has amassed a land base of extensive, resources situated in Alberta’s Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The Company’s segments include Thermal Oil and Duvernay Energy. The Thermal Oil Division consists of two operating oil sands steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) projects and a large resource base of exploration areas in the Athabasca region of northeastern Alberta. These projects provide Athabasca with a material low-decline production base that generates significant free cash flow for the business. Duvernay Energy produces light oil and liquids-rich natural gas from unconventional reservoirs. In Greater Kaybob, Duvernay Energy has approximately 200,000 gross acres of commercially prospective Duvernay lands with exposure to both liquid-rich gas and volatile oil opportunities.

Growth and profitability fiscal year ends December 31

Growth and profitability by fiscal year
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	5Y avg
Revenue (mil)	1,314	1,370	1,177	1,225	834	–
Revenue growth	−4.1%	16.4%	−3.9%	46.9%	65.4%	21.1%
EPS (basic, normalized)	0.49	0.85	−0.09	0.24	0.80	–
EPS growth	−42.4%	–	–	−70.0%	–	–
Gross margin	62.9%	64.3%	58.3%	59.6%	62.2%	61.4%
Net margin	18.7%	34.2%	−4.4%	46.7%	54.9%	30.0%
ROE	13.9%	28.1%	−3.1%	41.8%	57.5%	27.6%

Balance sheet, last quarter
Cash & short-term investments (mil)	305
Current ratio	1.75x
Long-term debt (mil)	213
Net debt (mil)	30.9
Total equity (mil)	1,927
Net debt / equity	0.02x
Net debt / EBITDA	0.06x

Estimates and valuation

Consensus estimates and implied multiples
	Sales (mil)			EBITDA (mil)			EPS
Fiscal year	Mean est.	Growth	EV/Sales	Mean est.	Growth	EV/EBITDA	Mean est.	Growth	P/E
2025 actual	1,314	−4.1%	4.3x	521	−10.5%	10.9x	0.49	−42.4%	24.0x
2026	1,702	+29.6%	3.3x	550	+5.4%	10.3x	0.56	+14.8%	20.9x
2027	2,104	+23.6%	2.7x	749	+36.2%	7.6x	0.92	+63.7%	12.8x
2028	1,080	−48.7%	5.3x	698	−6.7%	8.1x	0.92	−0.1%	12.8x

Estimate revisions

Change in consensus estimates over 1, 3 and 6 months
	Sales				EPS
Fiscal year	Estimate (mil)	1M	3M	6M	Estimate	1M	3M	6M
2026	1,702	+6.7%	+3.1%	+16.4%	0.56	−2.4%	−3.5%	−16.7%
2027	2,104	+5.5%	+7.0%	+15.9%	0.92	+4.9%	+3.4%	+0.6%
2028	1,080	+10.1%	−43.0%	–	0.92	+5.1%	+1.6%	−6.2%

Earnings surprises

Reported results versus consensus, last 10 fiscal quarters
Quarter ended	Mar 2024	Jun 2024	Sep 2024	Dec 2024	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Sales reported (mil)	302	373	356	352	–	–	–	301	–	343
Sales mean (mil)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	397
Surprise	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	−13.7%
EPS reported	0.07	0.17	0.12	0.50	0.14	0.11	0.14	0.10	0.10	0.13
EPS mean	0.08	0.17	0.17	0.15	0.15	0.13	0.14	0.14	0.12	0.15
Surprise	−12.5%	0.0%	−31.4%	+233.3%	−6.7%	−15.4%	0.0%	−25.9%	−16.7%	−12.9%

Peer comparison Oil & Gas

Peers in the same industry group, by market capitalization
Company	Market cap	Net debt/EBITDA	Net margin	P/B	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E	FY1 EV/EBITDA	FY2 EV/EBITDA
ATH Athabasca Oil Corporation	5.6B	0.06x	18.7%	2.93x	20.9x	12.8x	10.3x	7.6x
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Ltd	154.5B	0.93x	27.9%	3.32x	12.1x	13.7x	6.6x	7.4x
SU Suncor Energy Inc (Canada)	124.7B	0.58x	12.1%	2.57x	9.1x	12.2x	5.2x	6.3x
IMO Imperial Oil Ltd	88.5B	0.15x	7.0%	3.69x	11.5x	12.0x	7.4x	8.1x
CVE Cenovus Energy Incorporation	78.1B	0.88x	7.9%	2.32x	7.8x	8.5x	4.1x	4.5x
TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation	31.8B	−0.36x	60.3%	13.61x	36.4x	33.0x	26.5x	22.8x
Mean		0.37x	22.3%	4.74x	16.3x	15.4x	10.0x	9.4x
Median		0.36x	15.4%	3.12x	11.8x	12.5x	7.0x	7.5x

Technical analysis

1M+11.2%
3M+13.6%
1Y+70.8%
3Y+176.9%

Financial statements in millions of CAD

Income statement in millions of CAD, fiscal years

Income statement, Athabasca Oil Corporation, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Total revenue	1,314	1,370	1,177	1,225	834	504
Cost of revenue	488	489	491	495	315	186
Gross profit	826	881	686	729	518	318
Selling, general & administrative expenses	146	142	170	144	127	106
Research & development	2.1	1.1	1.4	3.1	2.8	22.4
Depreciation/amortization	131	115	111	120	98.6	113
Interest expense (income), operating	19.6	23.3	27.2	50.7	75.3	73.9
Unusual expense (income)	0	−218	0	−80.0	−346	478
Other operating expenses	174	209	206	268	198	150
Operating income	353	609	171	224	362	−624
Net interest income (expense)	−16.7	22.2	−2.4	−4.9	7.4	6.7
Gain (loss) on sale of assets	0.5	−0.5	−179	0.4	20.1	21.3
Other non-operating income (expense)	−9.3	−13.1	−25.9	−60.6	68.0	−61.1
Net income before taxes	327	617	−37.1	159	458	−658
Provision for taxes	79.4	145	14.1	−413	–	–
Minority interest	−2.7	−4.3	–	–	–	–
Equity in affiliates	–	–	–	–	–	–
U.S. GAAP adjustment	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income before extraordinary items	245	468	−51.2	572	458	−658
Extraordinary items	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income	245	468	−51.2	572	458	−658
EBIT, normalized	372	414	198	195	91.6	−73.0
EBITDA, normalized	504	529	309	314	190	40.1
Basic EPS, normalized	0.49	0.85	−0.09	0.24	0.80	–

Balance sheet in millions of CAD, fiscal years

Balance sheet, Athabasca Oil Corporation, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Assets
Cash & short-term investments	316	345	343	198	223	165
Receivables	126	138	100	89.5	88.8	62.5
Total inventory	43.9	43.2	42.5	56.9	43.0	30.4
Prepaid expenses	9.4	10.6	12.7	11.9	15.2	11.6
Other current assets	2.7	3.6	2.0	0.8	0	0
Total current assets	499	541	501	357	370	270
Property, plant & equipment	1,787	1,593	1,109	1,410	1,319	976
Goodwill	–	–	–	–	–	–
Intangibles	–	–	–	–	–	–
Long-term investments	–	–	–	–	–	–
Note receivable	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other long-term assets	265	341	439	464	52.6	180
Total assets	2,551	2,475	2,049	2,230	1,742	1,426
Liabilities
Accounts payable	–	–	–	–	–	–
Payable/accrued	185	169	130	126	112	104
Accrued expenses	–	–	–	–	–	–
Short-term debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Current portion of long-term debt	–	0.2	2.3	62.4	78.8	4.1
Other current liabilities	95.4	75.3	53.1	86.0	95.7	1.8
Total current liabilities	280	244	185	274	286	110
Long-term debt	198	201	185	152	318	569
Minority interest	119	117	–	–	–	–
Other liabilities	179	166	95.1	93.1	112	180
Total liabilities	777	728	465	520	716	859
Shareholders' equity
Preferred stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Common stock	1,743	1,964	2,273	2,353	2,242	2,242
Additional paid-in capital	140	137	132	128	127	125
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)	−109	−354	−822	−770	−1,343	−1,800
Treasury stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other equity	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total equity	1,774	1,747	1,583	1,710	1,026	567
Total liabilities & shareholders' equity	2,551	2,475	2,049	2,230	1,742	1,426

Cash flow statement in millions of CAD, fiscal years

Cash flow statement, Athabasca Oil Corporation, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Operating activities
Net income	248	472	−51.2	572	458	−658
Depreciation, depletion & amortization	131	115	111	120	98.6	113
Deferred taxes	79.7	143	14.1	−413	–	–
Non-cash items	43.3	−171	232	28.1	−374	510
Changes in working capital	18.4	−1.5	−0.5	9.0	11.9	11.7
Cash from operations	520	558	306	316	194	−22.9
Investing activities
Capital expenditures	−323	−269	−140	−147	−92.1	−112
Other investing cash flows	16.8	17.2	160	1.5	115	50.6
Cash from investing	−306	−251	20.6	−146	22.7	−61.0
Financing activities
Financing cash flow items	−2.0	22.6	2.6	–	–	–
Cash dividends paid	–	–	–	–	–	–
Issuance (retirement) of debt, net	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other financing cash flows	−229	−351	−173	−205	−159	−2.6
Cash from financing	−231	−329	−171	−205	−159	−2.6
Foreign exchange effects	−12.4	24.0	−9.6	9.8	0.1	−2.7
Net change in cash	−28.5	1.5	146	−25.5	57.9	−89.2
Free cash flow	198	289	166	168	102	−135

Disclaimer

The financial data presented in this report is delayed and obtained from sources QDD Research believes to be reliable, including stock exchanges, SEDAR, and EDGAR. However, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information. QDD Research accepts no liability for any errors, omissions, or financial losses arising from the use of this data.

This report is generated using a fully systematic and quantitative approach. All factor scores and the overall quant rating (ranging from D to A+) are derived from algorithmic models and are based solely on objective financial metrics. These scores are intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.

QDD Research is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not provide personalized financial advice. The content is not tailored to the specific investment goals, financial situation, or risk profile of any individual investor. We strongly encourage readers to consult with a licensed broker or investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on the information contained in this report.

Live quote provided by TradingView. Report data updated Nov 2, 2026 after market close.