Assured Guaranty Ltd AGO

FinancialsInsuranceBermuda

Last close 71.93 USD on Nov 2, 2026, −18.8% year to date

Quant rating

Quant rating B Rank 115 of 304 in Financials

Growth B 66 of 304
Valuation C 162 of 304
Quality B 50 of 304
Revisions C 143 of 304
Momentum C 208 of 304

Wall Street consensus Buy (1.75)Average target 91.00 USD +26.5%

Historical valuation

Multiples use consensus estimates for the next twelve months. The dashed line is the 5-year average.

Key data

Market cap: 3.2B
Enterprise value: 4.6B
52-week range: 67.34 – 92.37
3-year range: 64.34 – 95.47
Dividend yield: 2.16%
Beta (5 years): 0.63
Shares outstanding: 44.0M
Next earnings: Nov 5, 2026

About the company

Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a Bermuda-based holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides credit protection products to the United States and non-United States public finance, infrastructure and structured finance markets. It also participates in the asset management business through its ownership interest in Sound Point Capital Management, LP and certain of its investment management affiliates, and in the annuity reinsurance business through Assured Life Reinsurance Ltd. Its segments include Insurance, Asset Management and Annuity Reinsurance. Through its insurance subsidiaries, the Company applies its credit underwriting judgment, risk management skills and capital markets experience primarily to offer financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. The Asset management segment serves as an investment advisor to primarily collateralized loan obligations and opportunity funds.

Growth and profitability fiscal year ends December 31

Growth and profitability by fiscal year
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	5Y avg
Revenue (mil)	552	399	458	399	412	–
Revenue growth	38.3%	−12.9%	14.8%	−3.2%	−31.8%	−1.8%
EPS (basic, normalized)	9.08	7.10	10.78	4.14	6.32	–
EPS growth	27.9%	−34.1%	160.4%	−34.5%	–	–
Gross margin	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net margin	55.1%	51.2%	89.5%	19.5%	55.7%	54.2%
ROE	8.0%	6.9%	12.0%	4.5%	7.3%	7.7%

Balance sheet, last quarter
Cash & short-term investments (mil)	–
Current ratio	–
Long-term debt (mil)	1,706
Net debt (mil)	–
Total equity (mil)	5,559
Net debt / equity	–

Estimates and valuation

Consensus estimates and implied multiples
	Sales (mil)			Book value per share			EPS
Fiscal year	Mean est.	Growth	EV/Sales	Mean est.	Growth	P/B	Mean est.	Growth	P/E
2025 actual	552	+38.3%	8.3x	125.33	−3.3%	0.6x	9.08	+27.9%	7.9x
2026	936	+69.7%	4.9x	130.06	+3.8%	0.6x	6.91	−23.9%	10.4x
2027	844	−9.9%	5.4x	138.59	+6.6%	0.5x	6.84	−1.0%	10.5x
2028	941	+11.6%	4.9x	152.95	+10.4%	0.5x	8.19	+19.7%	8.8x

Estimate revisions

Change in consensus estimates over 1, 3 and 6 months
	Sales				EPS
Fiscal year	Estimate (mil)	1M	3M	6M	Estimate	1M	3M	6M
2026	936	0.0%	+0.7%	+10.4%	6.91	0.0%	−1.9%	+0.9%
2027	844	0.0%	−0.7%	+1.8%	6.84	0.0%	−0.6%	−10.0%
2028	941	0.0%	−0.4%	+4.4%	8.19	0.0%	−3.0%	−5.1%

Earnings surprises EPS beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters

Reported results versus consensus, last 10 fiscal quarters
Quarter ended	Mar 2024	Jun 2024	Sep 2024	Dec 2024	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Sales reported (mil)	245	202	269	156	345	281	166	277	261	195
Sales mean (mil)	193	194	201	194	241	190	185	192	217	205
Surprise	+26.8%	+3.9%	+33.6%	−19.7%	+43.1%	+48.0%	−10.3%	+44.6%	+20.1%	−4.9%
EPS reported	1.96	1.44	2.42	1.27	3.18	1.01	2.57	2.32	2.50	1.23
EPS mean	1.32	1.39	1.35	1.36	2.67	1.52	1.59	1.68	1.68	1.51
Surprise	+48.5%	+3.4%	+79.8%	−6.9%	+19.2%	−33.6%	+62.0%	+38.4%	+49.3%	−18.7%

Peer comparison Insurance

Peers in the same industry group, by market capitalization
Company	Market cap	ROE	Net margin	P/B	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E	FY1 P/B	FY2 P/B
AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd	3.2B	8.0%	55.1%	0.57x	10.4x	10.5x	0.6x	0.5x
CB Chubb Limited	141.0B	14.4%	17.4%	1.93x	12.7x	12.5x	1.8x	1.6x
PGR The Progressive Corporation	135.6B	38.2%	12.9%	3.96x	12.7x	14.4x	4.0x	3.5x
MRSH Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.	97.7B	33.4%	15.4%	6.65x	19.6x	17.9x	6.5x	5.6x
TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc.	81.7B	20.8%	12.8%	2.82x	10.8x	12.8x	2.6x	2.3x
ALL Allstate Corp	66.8B	37.2%	15.0%	1.99x	7.4x	9.4x	2.0x	1.7x
Mean		25.3%	21.4%	2.99x	12.3x	12.9x	2.9x	2.6x
Median		27.1%	15.2%	2.40x	11.8x	12.6x	2.3x	2.0x

Technical analysis

1M+5.1%
3M−12.6%
1Y−9.1%
3Y+16.3%

Financial statements in millions of USD

Income statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Income statement, Assured Guaranty Ltd, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Premiums earned	552	399	458	399	412	604
Other revenue	353	336	368	236	286	328
Total revenue	905	735	826	635	698	932
Losses, benefits and adjustments	56.0	−26.0	162	16.0	−220	203
Amortization of policy acquisition costs	22.0	20.0	13.0	14.0	14.0	16.0
Selling, general & administrative expenses	209	202	251	258	230	228
Depreciation/amortization	–	–	2.0	11.0	12.0	13.0
Interest expense (income), operating	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other operating expenses	100	141	−86.0	84.0	261	117
Operating income	518	398	484	252	401	355
Net interest income (expense)	144	90.0	184	−104	76.0	58.0
Gain (loss) on sale of assets	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other non-operating income (expense)	0	0	0	0	0	0
Net income before taxes	662	488	668	148	477	413
Provision for taxes	119	96.0	−93.0	11.0	58.0	45.0
Minority interest	−40.0	−16.0	−22.0	−13.0	−30.0	−6.0
Equity in affiliates	–	–	–	–	–	–
U.S. GAAP adjustment	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income before extraordinary items	503	376	739	124	389	362
Extraordinary items	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income	503	376	739	124	389	362
Basic weighted average shares (mil)	48.1	53.3	58.4	62.9	73.5	85.5
Diluted weighted average shares (mil)	48.7	54.3	59.6	62.9	74.3	86.2
Basic EPS, normalized	9.08	7.10	10.78	4.14	6.32	–

Balance sheet in millions of USD, fiscal years

Balance sheet, Assured Guaranty Ltd, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Assets
Total receivables	–	–	–	–	–	–
Prepaid expenses	–	–	–	–	–	–
Property, plant & equipment	54.0	60.0	71.0	100	100	79.0
Goodwill	–	–	–	–	–	–
Intangibles	–	–	6.0	163	175	203
Insurance receivables	1,572	1,551	1,468	1,298	1,372	1,372
Long-term investments	8,662	8,764	9,481	13,858	14,879	11,751
Note receivable	449	396	298	257	801	991
Other long-term assets	31.0	33.0	28.0	2.0	2.0	–
Deferred policy acquisition costs	192	176	161	147	131	119
Other assets	828	800	929	911	628	657
Total assets	12,176	11,901	12,539	16,843	18,208	15,334
Liabilities
Accounts payable	–	–	–	–	–	–
Payable/accrued	–	–	–	–	–	–
Accrued expenses	75.0	84.0	87.0	100	136	118
Policy liabilities	3,934	3,987	4,034	3,916	4,585	4,823
Short-term debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Current portion of long-term debt	–	–	–	–	–	–
Long-term debt	1,704	1,699	1,694	1,675	1,673	1,225
Minority interest	126	58.0	52.0	228	214	69.0
Other liabilities	674	578	959	5,860	5,314	2,463
Total liabilities	6,513	6,406	6,826	11,779	11,922	8,698
Shareholders' equity
Preferred stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Common stock	0.5	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
Additional paid-in capital	–	–	–	–	–	–
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)	5,830	5,878	6,070	5,577	5,990	6,143
Treasury stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other equity	−167	−384	−358	−514	295	492
Total equity	5,663	5,495	5,713	5,064	6,286	6,636
Total liabilities & shareholders' equity	12,176	11,901	12,539	16,843	18,208	15,334

Cash flow statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Cash flow statement, Assured Guaranty Ltd, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Operating activities
Net income	543	392	761	137	419	368
Depreciation, depletion & amortization	–	–	–	–	–	–
Deferred taxes	−5.0	−4.0	−156	−3.0	−38.0	58.0
Non-cash items	−75.0	−14.0	−46.0	138	150	45.0
Changes in working capital	−204	−327	−98.0	−2,751	−2,468	−1,324
Cash from operations	259	47.0	461	−2,479	−1,937	−853
Investing activities
Capital expenditures	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other investing cash flows	641	780	286	1,740	23.0	788
Cash from investing	641	780	286	1,740	23.0	788
Financing activities
Financing cash flow items	−48.0	−413	−248	−51.0	−26.0	−242
Cash dividends paid	−68.0	−68.0	−67.0	−64.0	−66.0	−69.0
Issuance (retirement) of debt, net	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other financing cash flows	−500	−502	−355	727	2,052	494
Cash from financing	−616	−983	−670	612	1,960	183
Foreign exchange effects	7.0	−2.0	2.0	−8.0	−2.0	−3.0
Net change in cash	291	−158	79.0	−135	44.0	115
Free cash flow	259	47.0	461	−2,479	−1,937	−853

Disclaimer

The financial data presented in this report is delayed and obtained from sources QDD Research believes to be reliable, including stock exchanges, SEDAR, and EDGAR. However, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information. QDD Research accepts no liability for any errors, omissions, or financial losses arising from the use of this data.

This report is generated using a fully systematic and quantitative approach. All factor scores and the overall quant rating (ranging from D to A+) are derived from algorithmic models and are based solely on objective financial metrics. These scores are intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.

QDD Research is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not provide personalized financial advice. The content is not tailored to the specific investment goals, financial situation, or risk profile of any individual investor. We strongly encourage readers to consult with a licensed broker or investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on the information contained in this report.

Live quote provided by TradingView. Report data updated Nov 2, 2026 after market close.