Chagee Holdings Ltd CHA
Consumer DiscretionaryHotels & Entertainment ServicesChina
Last close 12.05 USD on Nov 1, 2026, +3.6% year to date
Quant rating
- Growth C 182 of 297
- Valuation B 92 of 297
- Quality B 56 of 297
- Revisions A 31 of 297
- Momentum C 128 of 297
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Wall Street consensus Buy (2.00)Average target 15.19 USD +26.0%
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Subscribe to access the complete report for Chagee Holdings Ltd: quant scores, valuation history, consensus estimates, peers and six years of financial statements.
Historical valuation
Multiples use consensus estimates for the next twelve months. The dashed line is the 5-year average.
Growth and profitability fiscal year ends December 31
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 5Y avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (mil) | 1,846 | 1,700 | 654 | 71.3 | – | – |
| Revenue growth | 8.6% | 160.0% | 817.1% | – | – | – |
| EPS (basic, normalized) | 1.46 | – | – | – | – | – |
| EPS growth | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Gross margin | 53.5% | 49.6% | 44.8% | 38.2% | – | 46.5% |
| Net margin | 8.8% | 19.2% | 15.6% | −29.6% | – | 3.5% |
| ROE | 21.4% | 103.4% | 120.8% | – | – | 81.9% |
| Cash & short-term investments (mil) | 1,205 |
|---|---|
| Current ratio | 3.37x |
| Long-term debt (mil) | 0 |
| Net debt (mil) | −1,144 |
| Total equity (mil) | 1,211 |
| Net debt / equity | −0.95x |
| Net debt / EBITDA | – |
Estimates and valuation
| Sales (mil) | EBITDA (mil) | EPS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal year | Mean est. | Growth | EV/Sales | Mean est. | Growth | EV/EBITDA | Mean est. | Growth | P/E |
| 2025 actual | 1,846 | +8.6% | 0.6x | – | – | – | 1.46 | – | 8.3x |
| 2026 | 2,138 | +15.8% | 0.5x | 339 | – | 3.3x | 1.48 | +1.1% | 8.2x |
| 2027 | 2,414 | +12.9% | 0.5x | 387 | +14.1% | 2.9x | 1.60 | +8.4% | 7.5x |
| 2028 | 2,621 | +8.6% | 0.4x | 409 | +5.6% | 2.8x | 1.69 | +5.8% | 7.1x |
Estimate revisions
| Sales | EPS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal year | Estimate (mil) | 1M | 3M | 6M | Estimate | 1M | 3M | 6M |
| 2026 | 2,138 | −0.2% | +1.0% | +2.6% | 1.48 | +2.3% | +3.0% | −2.5% |
| 2027 | 2,414 | −0.4% | +1.8% | +0.2% | 1.60 | +1.9% | +3.0% | −2.5% |
| 2028 | 2,621 | −0.2% | +2.0% | +6.4% | 1.69 | +2.3% | +1.6% | −2.4% |
Earnings surprises EPS beat in 2 of the last 4 quarters
| Quarter ended | FQ-9 | FQ-8 | FQ-7 | FQ-6 | FQ-5 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales reported (mil) | – | – | – | – | – | 3,332 | 3,208 | 2,974 | 3,546 | 3,415 |
| Sales mean (mil) | – | – | – | – | – | 3,670 | 3,895 | 3,133 | 3,230 | 3,575 |
| Surprise | – | – | – | – | – | −9.2% | −17.6% | −5.0% | +9.8% | −4.5% |
| EPS reported | – | – | – | – | – | 3.30 | 2.57 | 0.49 | 2.65 | 2.54 |
| EPS mean | – | – | – | – | – | 0.64 | 2.94 | 2.04 | 1.88 | 2.36 |
| Surprise | – | – | – | – | – | +415.6% | −12.5% | −76.0% | +40.9% | +7.7% |
Peer comparison Hotels & Entertainment Services
| Company | Market cap | Net debt/EBITDA | Net margin | P/B | FY1 P/E | FY2 P/E | FY1 EV/EBITDA | FY2 EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA Chagee Holdings Ltd | 2.3B | – | 8.8% | 1.86x | 8.2x | 7.5x | 3.3x | 2.9x |
| 2097 MIXUE Group | 8.3B | – | 17.5% | 2.06x | 10.7x | 9.8x | 6.0x | 5.5x |
| 6862 Haidilao International Holding Ltd | 6.7B | – | 9.4% | 4.57x | 10.7x | 9.7x | 5.8x | 5.4x |
| 1364 Guming Holdings Ltd | 6.6B | – | 24.1% | 7.10x | 13.9x | 12.0x | 11.5x | 9.8x |
| YUMC Yum China Holdings Inc | 15.7B | −0.31x | 7.9% | 2.95x | 15.6x | 13.6x | 7.6x | 6.9x |
| BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | 7.5B | 1.71x | 4.9% | 9.39x | 44.2x | 33.5x | 20.8x | 16.5x |
| Mean | 0.70x | 12.1% | 4.65x | 17.2x | 14.3x | 9.2x | 7.9x | |
| Median | 0.70x | 9.1% | 3.76x | 12.3x | 10.9x | 6.8x | 6.2x |
Technical analysis
- 1M+5.2%
- 3M+3.5%
- 1Y−17.1%
- 3Y−57.7%
Financial statements in millions of USD
Income statement in millions of USD, fiscal years
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 1,846 | 1,700 | 654 | 71.3 | – | – |
| Cost of revenue | 858 | 857 | 361 | 44.0 | – | – |
| Gross profit | 988 | 842 | 293 | 27.3 | – | – |
| Selling, general & administrative expenses | 511 | 278 | 86.4 | 24.5 | – | – |
| Research & development | 38.4 | 26.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | – | – |
| Interest expense (income), operating | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Unusual expense (income) | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Other operating expenses | 246 | 142 | 53.4 | 18.9 | – | – |
| Operating income | 193 | 395 | 151 | −16.8 | – | – |
| Net interest income (expense) | 21.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| Gain (loss) on sale of assets | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Other non-operating income (expense) | 17.6 | 16.2 | −11.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| Net income before taxes | 231 | 417 | 142 | −16.3 | – | – |
| Provision for taxes | 61.7 | 72.3 | 28.7 | −3.1 | – | – |
| Minority interest | −2.2 | 0.2 | −0.2 | 0 | – | – |
| Equity in affiliates | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| U.S. GAAP adjustment | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Net income before extraordinary items | 167 | 345 | 113 | −13.2 | – | – |
| Extraordinary items | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Net income | 167 | 345 | 113 | −13.2 | – | – |
| EBIT, normalized | 193 | 395 | 151 | −16.8 | – | – |
| EBITDA, normalized | 214 | 404 | 153 | −16.1 | – | – |
| Basic EPS, normalized | 1.46 | – | – | – | – | – |
Balance sheet in millions of USD, fiscal years
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assets | ||||||
| Cash & short-term investments | 1,139 | 665 | 341 | 29.1 | – | – |
| Receivables | 49.4 | 26.9 | 17.8 | 3.8 | – | – |
| Total inventory | 32.6 | 18.1 | 5.8 | 4.8 | – | – |
| Prepaid expenses | 21.7 | 21.7 | 7.0 | 2.1 | – | – |
| Other current assets | 22.8 | 13.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| Total current assets | 1,266 | 745 | 373 | 40.0 | – | – |
| Property, plant & equipment | 266 | 108 | 20.8 | 11.3 | – | – |
| Goodwill | 14.0 | 1.6 | 0 | – | – | – |
| Intangibles | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0 | – | – | – |
| Long-term investments | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| Note receivable | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Other long-term assets | 91.6 | 46.9 | 20.5 | 5.8 | – | – |
| Total assets | 1,639 | 904 | 415 | 57.1 | – | – |
| Liabilities | ||||||
| Accounts payable | 90.1 | 81.8 | 63.2 | 9.3 | – | – |
| Payable/accrued | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Accrued expenses | 179 | 125 | 57.4 | 16.1 | – | – |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – |
| Current portion of long-term debt | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Other current liabilities | 138 | 108 | 84.4 | 17.7 | – | – |
| Total current liabilities | 408 | 315 | 205 | 43.2 | – | – |
| Long-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – |
| Minority interest | 33.6 | 13.8 | 2.2 | 0 | – | – |
| Other liabilities | 148 | 83.6 | 27.1 | 7.4 | – | – |
| Total liabilities | 589 | 412 | 234 | 50.6 | – | – |
| Shareholders' equity | ||||||
| Preferred stock | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Common stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – |
| Additional paid-in capital | 529 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 14.3 | – | – |
| Retained earnings (accumulated deficit) | 561 | 380 | 47.2 | −58.9 | – | – |
| Treasury stock | −30.0 | −28.8 | 0 | – | – | – |
| Other equity | −9.4 | 128 | 122 | 51.1 | – | – |
| Total equity | 1,050 | 492 | 180 | 6.5 | – | – |
| Total liabilities & shareholders' equity | 1,639 | 904 | 415 | 57.1 | – | – |
Cash flow statement in millions of USD, fiscal years
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating activities | ||||||
| Net income | 170 | 344 | 113 | −13.2 | – | – |
| Depreciation, depletion & amortization | 20.9 | 8.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | – | – |
| Deferred taxes | −21.4 | −17.4 | −13.5 | −3.1 | – | – |
| Non-cash items | 108 | 1.0 | 16.9 | 1.0 | – | – |
| Changes in working capital | −41.9 | 52.3 | 154 | 20.8 | – | – |
| Cash from operations | 235 | 389 | 272 | 6.2 | – | – |
| Investing activities | ||||||
| Capital expenditures | −64.7 | −33.1 | −4.5 | −1.6 | – | – |
| Other investing cash flows | −53.3 | 1.6 | −16.2 | 0 | – | – |
| Cash from investing | −118 | −31.4 | −20.7 | −1.6 | – | – |
| Financing activities | ||||||
| Financing cash flow items | 14.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0 | – | – |
| Cash dividends paid | −176 | – | – | – | – | – |
| Issuance (retirement) of debt, net | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Other financing cash flows | 455 | −29.1 | 46.7 | 0 | – | – |
| Cash from financing | 293 | −23.8 | 48.5 | 0 | – | – |
| Foreign exchange effects | −0.1 | 1.6 | −1.3 | 0 | – | – |
| Net change in cash | 410 | 335 | 299 | 4.6 | – | – |
| Free cash flow | 170 | 356 | 268 | 4.7 | – | – |
Disclaimer
The financial data presented in this report is delayed and obtained from sources QDD Research believes to be reliable, including stock exchanges, SEDAR, and EDGAR. However, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information. QDD Research accepts no liability for any errors, omissions, or financial losses arising from the use of this data.
This report is generated using a fully systematic and quantitative approach. All factor scores and the overall quant rating (ranging from D to A+) are derived from algorithmic models and are based solely on objective financial metrics. These scores are intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.
QDD Research is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not provide personalized financial advice. The content is not tailored to the specific investment goals, financial situation, or risk profile of any individual investor. We strongly encourage readers to consult with a licensed broker or investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on the information contained in this report.
Live quote provided by TradingView. Report data updated Nov 1, 2026 after market close.