The GEO Group, Inc. GEO

IndustrialsProfessional & Commercial ServicesUnited States of America

Last close 28.07 USD on Nov 3, 2026, +74.1% year to date

Quant rating

Quant rating C Rank 208 of 486 in Industrials

Growth B 122 of 486
Valuation B 155 of 486
Quality C 297 of 486
Revisions C 329 of 486
Momentum B 78 of 486

Wall Street consensus Buy (2.00)Average target 39.00 USD +38.9%

Historical valuation

Multiples use consensus estimates for the next twelve months. The dashed line is the 5-year average.

Key data

Market cap: 3.7B
Enterprise value: 5.2B
52-week range: 12.51 – 33.16
3-year range: 8.95 – 35.35
Dividend yield: –
Beta (5 years): 0.78
Shares outstanding: 132M
Next earnings: Nov 5, 2026

About the company

The GEO Group, Inc. is a diversified government service provider. The Company specializes in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. The Company’s U.S. Secure Services segment primarily encompasses the United Sates-based secure services business. Its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment represents technology and services provided to adults for monitoring services for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. Its Reentry Services segment represents evidence-based supervision and treatment programs provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs. Its International Services segment primarily consists of secure services operations in South Africa and Australia.

Growth and profitability fiscal year ends December 31

Growth and profitability by fiscal year
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	5Y avg
Revenue (mil)	2,632	2,424	2,413	2,377	2,257	–
Revenue growth	8.6%	0.4%	1.5%	5.3%	−4.0%	2.3%
EPS (basic, normalized)	0.86	0.75	0.95	1.17	1.32	–
EPS growth	14.7%	−21.1%	−18.8%	−11.4%	–	–
Gross margin	25.2%	26.8%	27.7%	30.0%	27.8%	27.5%
Net margin	9.7%	1.2%	3.7%	6.0%	3.1%	4.7%
ROE	17.9%	2.4%	8.7%	16.0%	8.2%	10.7%

Balance sheet, last quarter
Cash & short-term investments (mil)	55.0
Current ratio	1.65x
Long-term debt (mil)	1,512
Net debt (mil)	1,486
Total equity (mil)	1,516
Net debt / equity	0.98x
Net debt / EBITDA	3.20x

Estimates and valuation

Consensus estimates and implied multiples
	Sales (mil)			EBITDA (mil)			EPS
Fiscal year	Mean est.	Growth	EV/Sales	Mean est.	Growth	EV/EBITDA	Mean est.	Growth	P/E
2025 actual	2,632	+8.6%	2.0x	464	−2.7%	11.2x	0.86	+14.7%	32.6x
2026	2,992	+13.7%	1.7x	550	+18.4%	9.4x	1.32	+53.8%	21.2x
2027	3,265	+9.1%	1.6x	609	+10.8%	8.5x	1.73	+30.8%	16.2x
2028	3,469	+6.2%	1.5x	655	+7.6%	7.9x	2.03	+17.3%	13.8x

Estimate revisions

Change in consensus estimates over 1, 3 and 6 months
	Sales				EPS
Fiscal year	Estimate (mil)	1M	3M	6M	Estimate	1M	3M	6M
2026	2,992	−0.1%	+0.3%	−0.2%	1.32	+1.2%	+7.5%	+7.5%
2027	3,265	0.0%	+0.7%	+0.7%	1.73	+1.0%	+4.0%	+4.0%
2028	3,469	–	–	–	2.03	–	–	–

Earnings surprises EPS beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters

Reported results versus consensus, last 10 fiscal quarters
Quarter ended	Mar 2024	Jun 2024	Sep 2024	Dec 2024	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Sales reported (mil)	606	607	603	608	605	636	682	708	705	732
Sales mean (mil)	604	608	613	607	612	621	664	667	689	721
Surprise	+0.3%	−0.1%	−1.7%	0.0%	−1.2%	+2.4%	+2.7%	+6.1%	+2.4%	+1.5%
EPS reported	0.18	0.23	0.21	0.13	0.14	0.22	0.25	0.25	0.28	0.37
EPS mean	0.19	0.16	0.24	0.23	0.18	0.16	0.23	0.25	0.20	0.29
Surprise	−6.5%	+40.2%	−14.2%	−44.3%	−22.2%	+33.9%	+8.7%	0.0%	+42.4%	+26.1%

Peer comparison Professional & Commercial Services

Peers in the same industry group, by market capitalization
Company	Market cap	Net debt/EBITDA	Net margin	P/B	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E	FY1 EV/EBITDA	FY2 EV/EBITDA
GEO The GEO Group, Inc.	3.7B	3.20x	9.7%	2.45x	21.2x	16.2x	9.4x	8.5x
SOMLY SECOM CO., LTD.	20.1B	−1.16x	9.0%	2.09x	–	–	–	–
GFL GFL Environmental Inc.	19.4B	5.89x	3.2%	2.51x	80.6x	49.6x	15.9x	12.9x
ROL Rollins Inc	17.9B	0.70x	14.0%	12.84x	32.7x	30.2x	21.1x	19.5x
TTEK Tetra Tech, Inc.	10.1B	0.86x	4.6%	5.45x	25.0x	22.9x	16.3x	15.4x
MSA Msa Safety Inc	6.7B	0.85x	14.9%	4.79x	19.2x	17.5x	13.3x	12.1x
Mean		1.72x	9.2%	5.02x	35.7x	27.3x	15.2x	13.7x
Median		0.86x	9.3%	3.65x	25.0x	22.9x	15.9x	12.9x

Technical analysis

1M−10.5%
3M−10.4%
1Y+67.0%
3Y+210.5%

Financial statements in millions of USD

Income statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Income statement, The GEO Group, Inc., fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Total revenue	2,632	2,424	2,413	2,377	2,257	2,350
Cost of revenue	1,968	1,774	1,744	1,664	1,629	1,778
Gross profit	663	649	669	713	628	572
Selling, general & administrative expenses	236	213	191	197	204	193
Research & development	–	–	–	–	–	–
Depreciation/amortization	132	126	126	133	135	135
Interest expense (income), operating	–	–	–	–	–	–
Unusual expense (income)	46.0	86.6	8.5	37.9	−4.7	15.8
Other operating expenses	0	0	0	0	0	0
Operating income	249	223	344	345	293	228
Net interest income (expense)	−151	−182	−210	−148	−105	−104
Gain (loss) on sale of assets	232	−2.9	4.7	32.3	5.5	–
Other non-operating income (expense)	5.5	0	0	0	0	0
Net income before taxes	335	38.6	138	230	193	124
Provision for taxes	85.7	9.4	35.4	62.9	123	20.5
Minority interest	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2
Equity in affiliates	4.5	2.7	4.5	4.8	7.1	9.2
U.S. GAAP adjustment	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income before extraordinary items	254	32.0	107	172	77.4	113
Extraordinary items	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income	254	32.0	107	172	77.4	113
EBIT, normalized	301	316	362	383	295	271
EBITDA, normalized	433	442	488	516	430	405
Basic EPS, normalized	0.86	0.75	0.95	1.17	1.32	–

Balance sheet in millions of USD, fiscal years

Balance sheet, The GEO Group, Inc., fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Assets
Cash & short-term investments	69.0	76.9	94.0	95.1	506	284
Receivables	593	376	390	416	372	369
Total inventory	–	–	–	–	–	–
Prepaid expenses	53.1	44.5	44.5	43.5	45.2	32.1
Other current assets	3.0	2.8	0	0	20.2	26.7
Total current assets	719	500	529	555	944	711
Property, plant & equipment	1,956	1,995	2,046	2,093	2,150	2,247
Goodwill	756	756	755	755	755	755
Intangibles	117	127	136	148	166	188
Long-term investments	5.9	7.2	9.1	10.2	10.3	11.1
Note receivable	–	–	–	0	367	397
Other long-term assets	289	247	221	199	145	151
Total assets	3,844	3,632	3,696	3,760	4,537	4,460
Liabilities
Accounts payable	58.7	67.5	64.4	79.3	64.1	85.9
Payable/accrued	–	–	–	–	–	–
Accrued expenses	271	243	287	278	257	250
Short-term debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Current portion of long-term debt	1.4	1.6	55.9	44.7	18.6	26.2
Other current liabilities	26.0	28.0	30.3	35.4	39.1	49.3
Total current liabilities	357	340	437	437	379	411
Long-term debt	1,649	1,711	1,726	1,934	2,926	2,889
Minority interest	−1.7	−1.5	−1.5	−1.3	−1.2	−1.0
Other liabilities	333	247	243	224	258	248
Total liabilities	2,338	2,297	2,405	2,594	3,561	3,547
Shareholders' equity
Preferred stock	0	0	0	0	0	0
Common stock	1.4	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3
Additional paid-in capital	1,319	1,315	1,299	1,291	1,276	1,262
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)	294	39.9	103	−4.2	−176	−223
Treasury stock	−91.0	0	−95.2	−105	−105	−105
Other equity	−18.0	−21.6	−16.6	−16.9	−20.2	−22.6
Total equity	1,506	1,335	1,292	1,166	976	913
Total liabilities & shareholders' equity	3,844	3,632	3,696	3,760	4,537	4,460

Cash flow statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Cash flow statement, The GEO Group, Inc., fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Operating activities
Net income	254	31.9	107	172	77.2	113
Depreciation, depletion & amortization	132	126	126	133	135	135
Deferred taxes	22.1	1.5	1.5	−13.1	86.4	11.2
Non-cash items	−210	107	27.7	26.3	18.0	46.5
Changes in working capital	−126	−24.4	22.7	−21.3	−34.2	137
Cash from operations	72.6	242	285	296	283	442
Investing activities
Capital expenditures	−198	−78.7	−73.0	−90.0	−69.4	−109
Other investing cash flows	303	−23.0	12.4	93.0	15.7	4.6
Cash from investing	106	−102	−60.6	3.0	−53.7	−104
Financing activities
Financing cash flow items	−25.8	−81.0	−5.8	−42.8	−11.7	−2.8
Cash dividends paid	–	–	0	0	−30.5	−216
Issuance (retirement) of debt, net	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other financing cash flows	−160	−87.9	−202	−656	53.4	122
Cash from financing	−186	−169	−208	−699	11.3	−96.7
Foreign exchange effects	5.1	−5.6	−0.3	−4.8	−3.7	3.6
Net change in cash	−2.2	−34.0	16.0	−404	236	244
Free cash flow	−125	164	212	206	213	333

Disclaimer

The financial data presented in this report is delayed and obtained from sources QDD Research believes to be reliable, including stock exchanges, SEDAR, and EDGAR. However, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information. QDD Research accepts no liability for any errors, omissions, or financial losses arising from the use of this data.

This report is generated using a fully systematic and quantitative approach. All factor scores and the overall quant rating (ranging from D to A+) are derived from algorithmic models and are based solely on objective financial metrics. These scores are intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.

QDD Research is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not provide personalized financial advice. The content is not tailored to the specific investment goals, financial situation, or risk profile of any individual investor. We strongly encourage readers to consult with a licensed broker or investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on the information contained in this report.

Live quote provided by TradingView. Report data updated Nov 3, 2026 after market close.