Warrior Met Coal Inc HCC

MaterialsMetals & MiningUnited States of America

Last close 85.97 USD on Nov 1, 2026, −2.2% year to date

Quant rating

Quant rating B Rank 52 of 151 in Materials

Growth B 54 of 151
Valuation C 82 of 151
Quality B 28 of 151
Revisions C 99 of 151
Momentum B 42 of 151

Wall Street consensus Buy (2.00)Average target 104.17 USD +21.2%

Historical valuation

Multiples use consensus estimates for the next twelve months. The dashed line is the 5-year average.

Key data

Market cap: 4.5B
Enterprise value: 4.5B
52-week range: 64.57 – 111.34
3-year range: 40.66 – 111.34
Dividend yield: 0.37%
Beta (5 years): 0.74
Shares outstanding: 52.8M
Next earnings: Nov 4, 2026

About the company

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. is a producer and exporter of steelmaking coal, also known as hard coking coal (HCC), operating longwall operations in its underground mines based in Alabama. The Company's three operating mines: Mine No. 4, Mine No. 7 and Blue Creek. Mine No. 4 and Mine No. 7 are located approximately 300 miles from its export terminal at the Port of Mobile in Alabama. The Company sells its coal to a diversified customer base of blast furnace steel producers, primarily located in Europe, South America and Asia. The Company’s HCC, mined from the Southern Appalachian region of the United States, is characterized by low-to-high volatile matter, low sulfur, high fluidity, and high strength. Mine No. 4 and Mine No. 7 are located approximately 20 miles east of Tuscaloosa, Alabama and 30 miles southwest of Birmingham, Alabama. Its natural gas operations remove and sell natural gas from its owned and leased coal seams by reducing natural gas levels in our mines.

Growth and profitability

Growth and profitability by fiscal year
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	5Y avg
Revenue (mil)	1,310	1,525	1,677	1,739	1,059	–
Revenue growth	−14.1%	−9.0%	−3.6%	64.2%	35.3%	10.8%
EPS (basic, normalized)	1.08	4.92	9.59	12.88	4.43	–
EPS growth	−78.0%	−48.7%	−25.5%	190.7%	–	–
Gross margin	22.9%	31.0%	43.5%	57.6%	44.9%	40.0%
Net margin	4.4%	16.4%	28.5%	36.9%	14.2%	20.1%
ROE	2.7%	12.6%	28.8%	55.3%	18.9%	23.7%

Balance sheet, last quarter
Cash & short-term investments (mil)	322
Current ratio	3.93x
Long-term debt (mil)	228
Net debt (mil)	−53.2
Total equity (mil)	2,290
Net debt / equity	−0.02x
Net debt / EBITDA	−0.21x

Estimates and valuation

Consensus estimates and implied multiples
	Sales (mil)			EBITDA (mil)			EPS
Fiscal year	Mean est.	Growth	EV/Sales	Mean est.	Growth	EV/EBITDA	Mean est.	Growth	P/E
2025 actual	1,310	−14.1%	3.4x	257	−43.3%	17.5x	1.08	−78.0%	79.6x
2026	2,007	+53.2%	2.2x	617	+140.7%	7.3x	6.00	+456.0%	14.3x
2027	2,238	+11.5%	2.0x	751	+21.6%	6.0x	7.35	+22.4%	11.7x
2028	2,288	+2.2%	2.0x	767	+2.1%	5.8x	7.68	+4.5%	11.2x

Estimate revisions

Change in consensus estimates over 1, 3 and 6 months
	Sales				EPS
Fiscal year	Estimate (mil)	1M	3M	6M	Estimate	1M	3M	6M
2026	2,007	+0.7%	−0.6%	−2.7%	6.00	+0.5%	−1.7%	−15.6%
2027	2,238	+0.9%	+1.2%	+1.4%	7.35	−3.4%	−3.3%	−8.7%
2028	2,288	+0.4%	−1.0%	−1.1%	7.68	−7.1%	−14.0%	−16.5%

Earnings surprises EPS beat in 1 of the last 4 quarters

Reported results versus consensus, last 10 fiscal quarters
Quarter ended	Mar 2024	Jun 2024	Sep 2024	Dec 2024	Mar 2025	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Sales reported (mil)	504	397	328	297	295	298	329	384	459	510
Sales mean (mil)	477	381	324	307	285	292	304	381	466	488
Surprise	+5.6%	+4.2%	+1.2%	−3.0%	+3.6%	+2.0%	+8.0%	+0.8%	−1.6%	+4.4%
EPS reported	2.63	1.35	0.80	0.15	−0.16	0.11	0.70	0.44	1.37	1.73
EPS mean	2.63	1.32	0.66	0.43	0.01	−0.27	−0.33	0.55	1.51	1.48
Surprise	0.0%	+2.4%	+21.0%	−65.5%	−3,300.0%	−140.7%	−311.0%	−20.2%	−9.5%	+16.5%

Peer comparison Metals & Mining

Peers in the same industry group, by market capitalization
Company	Market cap	Net debt/EBITDA	Net margin	P/B	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E	FY1 EV/EBITDA	FY2 EV/EBITDA
HCC Warrior Met Coal Inc	4.5B	−0.21x	4.4%	1.98x	14.3x	11.7x	7.3x	6.0x
SCCO Southern Copper Corp	149.9B	0.09x	32.3%	12.58x	22.2x	23.6x	13.3x	13.8x
NEM Newmont Corporation	110.8B	−0.23x	31.3%	3.12x	11.6x	10.7x	6.4x	6.1x
FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc	87.5B	1.93x	8.5%	4.28x	19.4x	14.3x	8.4x	6.0x
AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited	83.5B	−0.41x	37.5%	2.82x	14.2x	14.0x	7.4x	7.1x
GLEN Glencore PLC	81.4B	–	0.1%	1.95x	11.2x	10.9x	5.8x	5.6x
Mean		0.24x	19.0%	4.45x	15.5x	14.2x	8.1x	7.4x
Median		−0.21x	19.9%	2.97x	14.3x	12.9x	7.3x	6.1x

Technical analysis

1M−6.3%
3M+8.9%
1Y+33.8%
3Y+82.9%

Financial statements in millions of USD

Income statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Income statement, Warrior Met Coal Inc, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Total revenue	1,310	1,525	1,677	1,739	1,059	783
Cost of revenue	1,010	1,053	948	738	583	659
Gross profit	300	472	729	1,001	476	124
Selling, general & administrative expenses	65.7	63.1	51.8	48.8	35.6	32.9
Research & development	–	–	–	–	–	–
Depreciation/amortization	189	154	127	115	141	118
Interest expense (income), operating	–	–	–	–	–	–
Unusual expense (income)	0	0.5	21.0	35.6	64.9	−3.5
Other operating expenses	0	0	0	0	0	0
Operating income	45.7	255	529	801	234	−23.6
Net interest income (expense)	8.7	28.8	22.7	−19.0	−35.4	−32.3
Gain (loss) on sale of assets	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other non-operating income (expense)	0	0	0	0.7	1.3	0
Net income before taxes	54.4	284	551	783	200	−55.9
Provision for taxes	−2.6	33.1	72.8	142	49.1	−20.1
Minority interest	–	–	–	–	–	–
Equity in affiliates	–	–	–	–	–	–
U.S. GAAP adjustment	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income before extraordinary items	57.0	251	479	641	151	−35.8
Extraordinary items	–	–	–	–	–	0
Net income	57.0	251	479	641	151	−35.8
EBIT, normalized	45.7	255	550	836	298	−24.5
EBITDA, normalized	234	409	677	952	439	93.6
Basic EPS, normalized	1.08	4.92	9.59	12.88	4.43	–

Balance sheet in millions of USD, fiscal years

Balance sheet, Warrior Met Coal Inc, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Assets
Cash & short-term investments	353	506	747	838	408	220
Receivables	182	142	110	155	130	88.4
Total inventory	236	208	184	154	59.6	119
Prepaid expenses	38.7	28.3	20.5	20.4	23.2	33.7
Other current assets	10.2	3.4	7.0	5.1	5.8	6.2
Total current assets	820	887	1,069	1,173	627	467
Property, plant & equipment	1,925	1,622	1,260	828	697	738
Goodwill	–	–	–	–	–	–
Intangibles	–	–	–	–	–	–
Long-term investments	0	44.6	–	–	–	–
Note receivable	–	–	–	–	–	0
Other long-term assets	38.9	38.1	27.8	27.4	140	188
Total assets	2,784	2,592	2,357	2,028	1,464	1,394
Liabilities
Accounts payable	66.1	40.2	36.2	39.0	33.8	59.1
Payable/accrued	–	–	–	–	–	–
Accrued expenses	132	85.4	81.6	77.4	54.8	86.1
Short-term debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Current portion of long-term debt	38.5	13.2	11.5	24.1	23.6	14.4
Other current liabilities	20.6	31.7	18.3	12.6	9.8	10.7
Total current liabilities	257	170	148	153	122	170
Long-term debt	232	160	162	312	368	404
Minority interest	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other liabilities	153	170	173	116	102	94.4
Total liabilities	642	501	483	581	592	669
Shareholders' equity
Preferred stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Common stock	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5
Additional paid-in capital	301	290	279	270	256	250
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)	1,891	1,851	1,645	1,228	666	526
Treasury stock	−50.6	−50.6	−50.6	−50.6	−50.6	−50.6
Other equity	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total equity	2,141	2,091	1,874	1,448	872	725
Total liabilities & shareholders' equity	2,784	2,592	2,357	2,028	1,464	1,394

Cash flow statement in millions of USD, fiscal years

Cash flow statement, Warrior Met Coal Inc, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Operating activities
Net income	57.0	251	479	641	151	−35.8
Depreciation, depletion & amortization	189	154	127	115	141	118
Deferred taxes	−9.4	−8.1	52.9	142	49.1	−20.1
Non-cash items	23.1	30.9	36.5	26.8	25.8	11.8
Changes in working capital	−30.0	−60.0	5.7	−83.2	−15.7	38.6
Cash from operations	229	367	701	842	352	113
Investing activities
Capital expenditures	−402	−488	−525	−254	−71.4	−115
Other investing cash flows	−3.0	−49.7	−2.4	−1.0	0.2	6.4
Cash from investing	−405	−538	−527	−255	−71.1	−108
Financing activities
Financing cash flow items	−9.4	−11.8	−9.4	−3.7	−14.4	−1.3
Cash dividends paid	−17.8	−43.8	−61.1	−79.7	−10.5	−10.4
Issuance (retirement) of debt, net	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other financing cash flows	11.8	−12.9	−195	−69.7	−71.6	25.8
Cash from financing	−15.4	−68.5	−265	−153	−96.5	14.1
Foreign exchange effects	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net change in cash	−191	−239	−91.3	434	184	18.5
Free cash flow	−173	−121	176	588	280	−2.0

Disclaimer

The financial data presented in this report is delayed and obtained from sources QDD Research believes to be reliable, including stock exchanges, SEDAR, and EDGAR. However, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information. QDD Research accepts no liability for any errors, omissions, or financial losses arising from the use of this data.

This report is generated using a fully systematic and quantitative approach. All factor scores and the overall quant rating (ranging from D to A+) are derived from algorithmic models and are based solely on objective financial metrics. These scores are intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.

QDD Research is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not provide personalized financial advice. The content is not tailored to the specific investment goals, financial situation, or risk profile of any individual investor. We strongly encourage readers to consult with a licensed broker or investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on the information contained in this report.

Live quote provided by TradingView. Report data updated Nov 1, 2026 after market close.