Obsidian Energy Ltd OBE

EnergyOil & GasCanada

Last close 14.52 CAD on Nov 2, 2026, +72.4% year to date

Quant rating

Quant rating D Rank 65 of 73 in Energy

Growth D 61 of 73
Valuation C 47 of 73
Quality D 62 of 73
Revisions D 67 of 73
Momentum C 44 of 73

Wall Street consensus Buy (2.33)Average target 19.67 CAD +35.4%

Historical valuation

Multiples use consensus estimates for the next twelve months. The dashed line is the 5-year average.

Key data

Market cap: 959M
Enterprise value: 1.3B
52-week range: 7.65 – 19.83
3-year range: 5.44 – 19.83
Dividend yield: –
Beta (5 years): 0.48
Shares outstanding: 66.0M
Next earnings: Nov 5, 2026

About the company

Obsidian Energy Ltd. is an intermediate-sized oil and gas producer with a portfolio asset, primarily on the Peace River, Willesden Green (Cardium and Belly River) and Viking areas in Alberta. The Company's business is to explore for, develop and hold interests in oil and natural gas properties and related production infrastructure in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. The Viking stands out as a shallow, light oil resource play with associated natural gas located in central Alberta. Its ownership is in cold-flow heavy oil resource within the heart of the Peace River Oilsands region. Its Peace River assets own large, contiguous, long-term land base of >700 sections with Bluesky and Clearwater heavy oil rights.

Growth and profitability

Growth and profitability by fiscal year
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	5Y avg
Revenue (mil)	568	740	660	779	455	–
Revenue growth	−23.3%	12.0%	−15.2%	71.2%	61.9%	15.1%
EPS (basic, normalized)	0.49	−2.67	1.28	9.60	5.34	–
EPS growth	–	–	−86.7%	79.8%	–	–
Gross margin	67.1%	70.9%	71.4%	77.5%	71.5%	71.7%
Net margin	6.2%	−27.4%	16.4%	104.0%	91.0%	38.0%
ROE	2.5%	−13.3%	6.7%	69.1%	76.2%	28.3%

Balance sheet, last quarter
Cash & short-term investments (mil)	0.2
Current ratio	0.78x
Long-term debt (mil)	371
Net debt (mil)	374
Total equity (mil)	1,400
Net debt / equity	0.27x
Net debt / EBITDA	1.28x

Estimates and valuation

Consensus estimates and implied multiples
	Sales (mil)			EBITDA (mil)			EPS
Fiscal year	Mean est.	Growth	EV/Sales	Mean est.	Growth	EV/EBITDA	Mean est.	Growth	P/E
2025 actual	568	−23.3%	2.4x	292	−35.9%	4.6x	0.49	+118.4%	29.6x
2026	641	+13.0%	2.1x	443	+51.6%	3.0x	1.35	+176.5%	10.7x
2027	732	+14.3%	1.8x	424	−4.3%	3.1x	1.61	+18.8%	9.0x

Estimate revisions

Change in consensus estimates over 1, 3 and 6 months
	Sales				EPS
Fiscal year	Estimate (mil)	1M	3M	6M	Estimate	1M	3M	6M
2026	641	0.0%	−3.3%	+12.8%	1.35	+15.8%	+15.8%	−33.9%
2027	732	0.0%	+0.1%	+15.1%	1.61	−6.9%	−6.9%	−19.9%
2028	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Earnings surprises EPS beat in 1 of the last 4 quarters

Reported results versus consensus, last 10 fiscal quarters
Quarter ended	Mar 2024	Jun 2024	Sep 2024	Dec 2024	Mar 2025	FQ-4	FQ-3	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Sales reported (mil)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Sales mean (mil)	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Surprise	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
EPS reported	0.15	0.46	0.42	−3.69	0.20	–	–	−0.18	−0.28	0.61
EPS mean	0.73	1.00	1.06	–	−4.11	–	–	0.09	0.04	0.32
Surprise	−79.6%	−54.0%	−60.4%	–	−104.9%	–	–	−300.0%	−800.0%	+90.6%

Peer comparison Oil & Gas

Peers in the same industry group, by market capitalization
Company	Market cap	Net debt/EBITDA	Net margin	P/B	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E	FY1 EV/EBITDA	FY2 EV/EBITDA
OBE Obsidian Energy Ltd	959M	1.28x	6.2%	0.69x	10.7x	9.0x	3.0x	3.1x
WCP Whitecap Resources Inc	22.3B	0.74x	19.0%	1.92x	12.3x	10.0x	4.7x	4.8x
PSK Prairiesky Royalty Ltd.	8.4B	0.21x	42.9%	3.23x	24.7x	22.6x	14.7x	14.3x
TVE Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd	6.2B	−0.35x	−2.7%	3.26x	15.3x	13.2x	5.4x	4.6x
ATH Athabasca Oil Corporation	5.6B	0.06x	18.7%	2.93x	20.9x	12.8x	10.3x	7.6x
BTE Baytex Energy Corp.	4.6B	−0.33x	−18.7%	2.20x	13.4x	13.5x	3.5x	3.7x
Mean		0.27x	10.9%	2.37x	16.2x	13.5x	6.9x	6.4x
Median		0.14x	12.4%	2.57x	14.4x	13.0x	5.1x	4.7x

Technical analysis

1M−2.5%
3M−3.5%
1Y+82.6%
3Y+20.5%

Financial statements in millions of CAD

Income statement in millions of CAD, fiscal years

Income statement, Obsidian Energy Ltd, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Total revenue	568	740	660	779	455	281
Cost of revenue	187	215	189	175	130	115
Gross profit	381	525	472	603	325	166
Selling, general & administrative expenses	85.7	86.6	76.2	81.6	53.5	35.7
Research & development	–	–	–	−322	–	–
Depreciation/amortization	180	247	208	174	120	134
Interest expense (income), operating	–	–	–	–	–	–
Unusual expense (income)	34.9	417	2.7	22.5	−320	770
Other operating expenses	12.2	18.9	17.9	1.5	−4.9	−16.4
Operating income	67.8	−245	166	646	477	−758
Net interest income (expense)	−20.8	−20.0	−20.2	−81.3	−60.4	−1.0
Gain (loss) on sale of assets	–	–	–	–	–	0
Other non-operating income (expense)	0	−0.3	−2.7	−0.6	−2.7	−12.9
Net income before taxes	47.0	−265	144	564	414	−772
Provision for taxes	11.8	−62.5	35.6	−246	0	0
Minority interest	–	–	–	–	–	–
Equity in affiliates	–	–	–	–	–	–
U.S. GAAP adjustment	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income before extraordinary items	35.2	−203	108	810	414	−772
Extraordinary items	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net income	35.2	−203	108	810	414	−772
EBIT, normalized	103	172	169	668	156	12.5
EBITDA, normalized	283	419	378	842	276	146
Basic EPS, normalized	0.49	−2.67	1.28	9.60	5.34	–

Balance sheet in millions of CAD, fiscal years

Balance sheet, Obsidian Energy Ltd, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Assets
Cash & short-term investments	–	0	0.5	0.8	7.3	8.1
Receivables	56.1	88.0	70.0	82.6	68.9	40.8
Total inventory	–	–	–	–	–	–
Prepaid expenses	11.0	12.0	12.8	10.7	9.1	9.2
Other current assets	23.0	392	11.3	6.2	1.8	0.8
Total current assets	90.1	492	94.6	100	87.1	58.9
Property, plant & equipment	1,494	1,349	1,944	1,858	1,342	905
Goodwill	–	–	–	–	–	–
Intangibles	–	–	–	–	–	–
Long-term investments	–	–	–	–	–	–
Note receivable	–	–	–	–	–	0
Other long-term assets	270	273	212	246	0	0
Total assets	1,855	2,115	2,250	2,204	1,429	964
Liabilities
Accounts payable	–	–	–	–	–	–
Payable/accrued	155	176	194	186	108	74.1
Accrued expenses	–	–	–	–	–	–
Short-term debt	0.4	0.5	0	0	0	0
Current portion of long-term debt	3.3	5.1	3.9	3.2	395	457
Other current liabilities	8.9	93.9	32.6	34.1	27.6	16.9
Total current liabilities	168	275	230	223	530	548
Long-term debt	196	337	224	228	4.6	5.6
Minority interest	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other liabilities	99.5	96.6	152	174	131	87.8
Total liabilities	463	709	607	625	666	641
Shareholders' equity
Preferred stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Common stock	2,085	2,135	2,175	2,222	2,214	2,187
Additional paid-in capital	–	–	–	–	–	–
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)	−693	−729	−531	−642	−1,450	−1,864
Treasury stock	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other equity	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total equity	1,392	1,406	1,644	1,580	764	323
Total liabilities & shareholders' equity	1,855	2,115	2,250	2,204	1,429	964

Cash flow statement in millions of CAD, fiscal years

Cash flow statement, Obsidian Energy Ltd, fiscal years, most recent first
	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Operating activities
Net income	35.2	−203	108	810	414	−772
Depreciation, depletion & amortization	180	247	211	–	–	903
Deferred taxes	11.8	−62.5	35.6	−246	–	–
Non-cash items	−17.8	416	−15.5	−142	−210	−45.2
Changes in working capital	30.6	−35.7	13.6	34.8	−5.1	−6.6
Cash from operations	240	362	353	457	199	79.4
Investing activities
Capital expenditures	−299	−426	−293	−319	−141	−57.2
Other investing cash flows	282	−4.0	−0.5	28.6	−15.6	−9.0
Cash from investing	−17.2	−430	−294	−291	−157	−66.2
Financing activities
Financing cash flow items	−4.8	−1.8	−0.8	−6.5	0	2.2
Cash dividends paid	–	–	–	–	–	–
Issuance (retirement) of debt, net	–	–	–	–	–	–
Other financing cash flows	−218	69.4	−58.6	−166	−42.9	−10.3
Cash from financing	−222	67.6	−59.4	−172	−42.9	−8.1
Foreign exchange effects	–	–	–	–	–	–
Net change in cash	0.1	−1.0	−0.3	−6.5	−0.8	5.1
Free cash flow	−59.4	−64.6	59.6	137	57.7	22.2

Disclaimer

The financial data presented in this report is delayed and obtained from sources QDD Research believes to be reliable, including stock exchanges, SEDAR, and EDGAR. However, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information. QDD Research accepts no liability for any errors, omissions, or financial losses arising from the use of this data.

This report is generated using a fully systematic and quantitative approach. All factor scores and the overall quant rating (ranging from D to A+) are derived from algorithmic models and are based solely on objective financial metrics. These scores are intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.

QDD Research is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not provide personalized financial advice. The content is not tailored to the specific investment goals, financial situation, or risk profile of any individual investor. We strongly encourage readers to consult with a licensed broker or investment advisor before making any investment decisions based on the information contained in this report.

Live quote provided by TradingView. Report data updated Nov 2, 2026 after market close.